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Transiciones laborales hacia la informalidad luego de un sudden stop: el caso de Argentina 2018

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  • Álvarez Kuhnle Tomás

Abstract

Este trabajo busca analizar los efectos que tiene un shock internacional sobre la composición de los mercados de trabajo en países emergentes con alta incidencia de la informalidad. Para ello se toma el sudden stop ocurrido en Argentina comparando los cuartos trimestres de 2017 y 2018. Se utilizan los datos de panel de la EPH para analizar las transiciones y se emplea un modelo logit multinomial para identificar las características personales y del puesto de trabajo que influyen en la probabilidad de cambiar de categoría laboral. Se observa que los empleados en el sector no transable tuvieron una mayor probabilidad de haber cambiado a un trabajo informal, mientras que aquellos que ya estaban en la informalidad era más probable que perdieran su empleo en comparación con los trabajadores en el sector transable. Posteriormente, se utiliza un modelo DSGE que diferencia entre sectores transables y no transables, así como entre empleo formal e informal, para simular el impacto del shock y explicar los hechos estilizados observados. Se encuentra que el modelo base no logra capturar de manera precisa las dinámicas de la relación formal-informal dentro de los sectores transable y no transable. Sin embargo, luego se realizan extensiones en busca de entender cuáles son los supuestos que pueden generar las dinámicas esperadas.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvarez Kuhnle Tomás, 2024. "Transiciones laborales hacia la informalidad luego de un sudden stop: el caso de Argentina 2018," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4706, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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