Unemployment dynamics and informality in small open economies

Despite the typically more pronounced aggregate fluctuations in emerging market economies (EMEs), this paper documents that EMEs exhibit lower relative volatility and countercyclicality of the unemployment rate than small open advanced economies. We link these differences to the larger informal economy in EMEs. We build a small open economy model that combines a formal sector featuring labor search frictions with a frictionless informal sector. A larger informal sector amplifies the impact of productivity and interest rate shocks on formal output, consumption, and employment, while dampening their impact on unemployment. Varying the degree of informality explains a significant fraction of differences in unemployment dynamics across small open economies.