IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0261277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informality in the time of COVID-19 in Latin America: Implications and policy options

Author

Listed:
  • Ivonne Acevedo
  • Francesca Castellani
  • Giulia Lotti
  • Miguel Székely

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the labor market in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic. After a decade of a virtuous circle of growth with the creation of formal jobs, the pandemic has had an considerable impact on the region’s labor market, generating an unparalleled increase in the proportion of the inactive population, considerable reductions in informality, and, in contrast, smaller fluctuations in formal jobs. In this context, the formal sector, given its lower flexibility, became a "social safety net" that preserved the stability of employment and wages. Based on the findings presented in this paper, it is projected that, starting in 2021, informality will grow to levels higher than those of the pre-COVID-19 era–with 7.56 million additional informal jobs–as a result of the population returning to the labor market to compensate for the declines in incomes. According to the simulations presented, postponing or forgiving income tax payments and social security contributions conditional on the generation of formal jobs could reduce the growth of informality by 50 to 75 percent. Achieving educational improvements has the potential to reduce it by 50 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivonne Acevedo & Francesca Castellani & Giulia Lotti & Miguel Székely, 2021. "Informality in the time of COVID-19 in Latin America: Implications and policy options," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261277
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261277
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261277&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0261277?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza,Norman V., 2018. "Informality : Why Is It So Widespread and How Can It Be Reduced?," Research and Policy Briefs 133110, The World Bank.
    2. Amarante, Verónica & Gómez, Marcela, 2016. "El proceso de formalización en el mercado laboral uruguayo," Estudios y Perspectivas – Oficina de la CEPAL en Montevideo 39859, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    4. Helena Ribe & David A. Robalino & Ian Walker, 2012. "From Right to Reality : Incentives, Labor Markets, and the Challenge of Universal Social Protection in Latin America and the Caribbean [De los derechos a la realidad : incentivos, mercados de traba," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6008.
    5. Kanbur, Ravi, 2009. "Conceptualising Informality: Regulation and Enforcement," IZA Discussion Papers 4186, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Enrique Ghersi, 1997. "The Informal Economy in Latin America," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 99-108, Spring/Su.
    7. Andres Fernandez & Felipe Meza, 2015. "Informal Employment and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Case of Mexico," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 381-405, April.
    8. Frederic Lambert & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Frederik G Toscani, 2020. "Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2020/256, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2114, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Unemployment and the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, number 978-3-030-96687-4, October.
    4. Hartmut Lehmann, 2015. "Informal Employment in Transition Countries: Empirical Evidence and Research Challenges," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 1-30, March.
    5. Dohmen, Thomas & Khamis, Melanie & Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2023. "Risk Attitudes and Informal Employment in Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 16445, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Gomez, Luis F. & Sarmiento, Rodrigo & Ordoñez, Maria Fernanda & Pardo, Carlos Felipe & de Sá, Thiago Hérick & Mallarino, Christina H. & Miranda, J. Jaime & Mosquera, Janeth & Parra, Diana C. & Reis, R, 2015. "Urban environment interventions linked to the promotion of physical activity: A mixed methods study applied to the urban context of Latin America," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 18-30.
    7. Ahmed Kamara, 2023. "The Informal Sector and the Welfare Effects of Inflation Targeting," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 549-584, October.
    8. Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2018. "Informal employment relationships and the labor market: Is there segmentation in Ukraine?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 838-857.
    9. Ajit K. Ghose, 2017. "Informality and Development," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 60(1), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Beegle,Kathleen G. & Benjamin,Nancy Claire & Recanatini,Francesca & Santini,Massimiliano, 2014. "Informal economy and the World Bank," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6888, The World Bank.
    11. Antón, Arturo & Boyd, Roy & Elizondo, Alejandra & Ibarrarán, María Eugenia, 2016. "Universal social insurance for Mexico: Modeling of a financing scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 838-850.
    12. Matteo Bobba & Luca Flabbi & Santiago Levy, 2022. "Labor Market Search, Informality, And Schooling Investments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 211-259, February.
    13. Giorgio Brosio & Juan Pablo Jiménez & Roberto Zanola, 2014. "Alternative views on the origins and impact of the informal economy," Chapters, in: Francesco Forte & Ram Mudambi & Pietro Maria Navarra (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 21, pages 485-502, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Theorizing the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Unemployment and the Informal Economy, chapter 0, pages 7-60, Springer.
    15. Ahmad, Ehtisham & Best, Michael, 2012. "Financing social policy in the presence of informality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Gomez, Wilman & Castrillon, Cristian & Montoya, Jaime, 2024. "Sector informal como amortiguador del ciclo económico: el papel de la aversión a la pérdida," Borradores Departamento de Economía 100, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, revised 05 Nov 2024.
    17. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2018. "Labor force participation, interest rate shocks, and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 346-374.
    18. Colin Williams & Brunilda Kosta, 2021. "Why do Consumers Buy from Informal Sector Suppliers in East-Central Europe? A Case Study of Home Repair and Renovation Services," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 134-152, March.
    19. Colin C Williams, 2021. "Tackling Undeclared Self-Employment in South-East Europe: from Deterrents to Preventative Policy Measures," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 280-298, July.
    20. Benjamín Villena-Roldán, 2024. "Unpacking the Persistence of Informality," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 203-231, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.