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Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia

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  • Ron Duncan
  • Qun Shi
  • Rod Tyers

Abstract

The analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. Recent stochastic population projections also yield wide error bounds. We discuss the demographic implications of one set of stochastic projections and adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of population forecast errors for the performance of the global economy and its agricultural sectors. The model is GTAP-Dynamic, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy widely used in the analysis of trade policy. The results indicate that the growth rate of population in the rest of the world is important for Australia’s economic health. If the global population grows more slowly than the median forecast suggests, Australia’s manufacturing and services sectors would gain at the expense of commodities. The impact on individual agricultural sectors also depends on which region the slower population growth occurs

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Duncan & Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2004. "Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2004-441, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2004-441
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp441.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blandford, David, 1984. "Changes in Food Consumption Patterns in the OECD Area," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 11(1), pages 43-64.
    2. E. Wesley F. Peterson & Lan Jin & Shoichi Ito, 1991. "An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 67-78, October.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
    4. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.

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