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On honest times in financial modeling

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  • Ashkan Nikeghbali
  • Eckhard Platen

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the usefulness and importance of the concept of honest times to financial modeling. It studies a financial market with asset prices that follow jump-diffusions with negative jumps. The central building block of the market model is its growth optimal portfolio (GOP), which maximizes the growth rate of strictly positive portfolios. Primary security account prices, when expressed in units of the GOP, turn out to be nonnegative local martingales. In the proposed framework an equivalent risk neutral probability measure need not exist. Derivative prices are obtained as conditional expectations of corresponding future payoffs, with the GOP as numeraire and the real world probability as pricing measure. The time when the global maximum of a portfolio with no positive jumps, when expressed in units of the GOP, is reached, is shown to be a generic representation of an honest time. We provide a general formula for the law of such honest times and compute the conditional distributions of the global maximum of a portfolio in this framework. Moreover, we provide a stochastic integral representation for uniformly integrable martingales whose terminal values are functions of the global maximum of a portfolio. These formulae are model independent and universal. We also specialize our results to some examples where we hedge a payoff that arrives at an honest time.

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  • Ashkan Nikeghbali & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "On honest times in financial modeling," Papers 0808.2892, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0808.2892
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Fontana & Monique Jeanblanc & Shiqi Song, 2014. "On arbitrages arising with honest times," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 515-543, July.
    2. Claudio Fontana & Monique Jeanblanc & Shiqi Song, 2012. "On arbitrages arising from honest times," Papers 1207.1759, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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