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Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit: Makroökonomische Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhne von morgen

Author

Listed:
  • Arntz, Melanie
  • Gregory, Terry
  • Zierahn, Ulrich
  • Lehmer, Florian
  • Matthes, Britta

Abstract

In der öffentlichen Debatte werden vor dem Hintergrund von Studien zur Automatisierbarkeit von Berufen immer wieder Stimmen laut, dass Industrie 4.0 und Digitalisierung massive Jobverluste nach sich ziehen könnten. Der lange Weg von der Entwicklung neuer Technologien in die betriebliche Praxis wird dabei oftmals ebenso vernachlässigt, wie die vielfältigen makroökonomischen Anpassungsprozesse, die möglichen arbeitsplatzsparenden Effekten neuer Technologien entgegenwirken. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert das vorliegende Gutachten die Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung sowohl der Industrie als auch des Dienstleistungssektors auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Zu diesem Zweck haben wir zum einen eine mit den Sozialversicherungsdaten verknüpfte Betriebsbefragung durchgeführt, um den tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten Einsatz neuer Technologien am aktuellen Rand zu erheben. Zum anderen haben wir ein strukturelles Modell entwickelt, mit dem wir die Auswirkungen der tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten technologischen Investitionen auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt für die jüngere Vergangenheit abschätzen und für die nähere Zukunft simulieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich & Lehmer, Florian & Matthes, Britta, 2018. "Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit: Makroökonomische Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhne von morgen," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 179119, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:179119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hartmut Seifert, 2022. "Ehrgeizige Pläne der Ampelkoalition zur beruflichen Weiterbildung [Ambitious Plans of the “Traffic Light” Coalition for further Vocational Training]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 379-384, May.
    2. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. Wydra-Somaggio, Gabriele & Otto, Anne, 2020. "Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit in Rheinland-Pfalz," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Rheinland-Pfalz-Saarland 202002, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Balsmeier, Benjamin & Woerter, Martin, 2019. "Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    5. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine Mayrhu, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256, April.
    7. Dispan, Jürgen & Schwarz-Kocher, Martin, 2018. "Digitalisierung im Maschinenbau. Entwicklungstrends, Herausforderungen, Beschäftigungswirkungen, Gestaltungsfelder im Maschinen- und Anlagenbau," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 94, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    8. Wydra-Somaggio, Gabriele & Otto, Anne, 2020. "Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit im Saarland," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Rheinland-Pfalz-Saarland 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the future of work: Macroeconomic consequences," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-024, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Suedekum, Jens, 2018. "Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit: Was ist am Arbeitsmarkt passiert und wie soll die Wirtschaftspolitik reagieren?," IZA Standpunkte 90, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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