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Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Delfin S. Go
  • John Page

Abstract

This book is a collection of essays that seeks to answer three interrelated sets of questions about Africa's recent growth recovery. The first set of essays addresses questions about the drivers and durability of Africa's growth. How different is current economic performance compared to Africa's long history of boom-bust cycles? Have African countries learned to avoid past mistakes and pursued the right policies? How much of the current performance depends on good luck such as favorable commodity prices or the recovery of external assistance and how much depends on hard-won economic policy reforms. A second set of essays looks at the role of donor flows. External assistance plays a larger role in Africa's growth story than in any other part of the developing world. As a result, the economic management of external assistance is a major public policy challenge, and donor behavior is a significant source of external risk. The third set of essays looks at questions arising from commodity price shocks especially from changes in the price of oil. Relative to factors such as policy failures, conflicts, and natural disasters, how important are commodity price shocks in explaining output variability in African countries? Compared to the oil price shocks in the 1970s, why have recent higher oil prices apparently had less impact on Africa's growth? Oil is also now an important source of revenue for several oil exporting countries in Africa; what are the economic challenges faced by those countries? How should one analyze the macroeconomic and distributional impact of external and oil price shocks? As the essays in this volume show, laying the policy and institutional basis for longer-term growth, managing volatile commodity prices and aid flows, and turning growth in average incomes into growth in all incomes remain formidable but manageable challenges if Africa is to reach its turning point.

Suggested Citation

  • Delfin S. Go & John Page, 2008. "Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6421.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:6421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Jenkins, Carolyn & Thomas, Lynne, 2000. "The Changing Nature of Inequality in South Africa," WIDER Working Papers 295535, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. McDonald, Scott & van Schoor, Melt, 2005. "A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa," Working Paper Series 15633, PROVIDE Project.
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    11. repec:bla:revinw:v:39:y:1993:i:2:p:121-39 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Olessia Korbut & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2011/040, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sam Jones & John Page & Abebe Shimeles & Finn Tarp & John Page & Abebe Shimeles, 2015. "Aid, Employment and Poverty Reduction in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-30, October.
    3. Shantayanan Devarajan & Yazid Dissou & Delfin S. Go & Sherman Robinson, 2017. "Budget Rules and Resource Booms and Busts: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96.
    4. Abdullahi Ahmed & Andrew Hulten, 2014. "Financial Globalization in Botswana and Nigeria: A Critique of the Thresholds Paradigm," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 177-203, June.
    5. Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2008. "Hunting for Leopards: Long-Run Country Income Dynamics in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-80, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. John Page, 2012. "Aid, Structural Change and the Private Sector in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-021, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Dissou, Yazid & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman, 2014. "Budget rules and resource booms: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," Conference papers 332455, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Hostland, Douglas & Giugale, Marcelo M., 2013. "Africa's macroeconomic story," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6635, The World Bank.
    9. Asche, Helmut & Grimm, Michael, 2017. "Industrialisation in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities," PEGNet Policy Briefs 8/2017, PEGNet - Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Arbache, Jorge & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John, 2008. "Is Africa's economy at a turning point?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4519, The World Bank.
    11. Page, John, 2012. "Aid, Structural Change and the Private Sector in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 021, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Aid, growth, and real exchange rate dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4480, The World Bank.
    13. John Page, 2011. "Should Africa Industrialize?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Go, Delfin S. & Quijada, Jose Alejandro, 2011. "Assessing the odds of achieving the MDGs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5825, The World Bank.
    15. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Nina Budina, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Volatility and Oil Wealth: A Stochastic Analysis of Fiscal Spending Rules," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-068/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 May 2011.

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