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Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report

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  • Stoerk, Thomas
  • Wagner, Gernot
  • Ward, Robert E. T.

Abstract

Large discrepancies persist between projections of the physical impacts of climate change and economic damage estimates. These discrepancies increase with increasing global average temperature projections. Based on this observation, we recommend that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) improve its approach to the management of the uncertainties inherent in climate policy decisions. In particular, we suggest that the IPCC: (i) strengthen its focus on applications of decision-making under risk, uncertainty, and outright ambiguity; and (ii) estimate how the uncertainty itself affects its economic and financial cost estimates of climate damage and, ultimately, the optimal price for each ton of carbon dioxide released. Our hope is that by adopting these recommendations, AR6 will be able to resolve some of the documented inconsistencies in estimates of the physical and economic impacts of climate change and more effectively fulfill the IPCC’s mission to provide policy-makers with a robust and rigorous approach for assessing the potential future risks of climate change.

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  • Stoerk, Thomas & Wagner, Gernot & Ward, Robert E. T., 2018. "Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87957, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:87957
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    Cited by:

    1. Romero, João P. & Gramkow, Camila, 2021. "Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Gramkow, Camila, 2020. "Green fiscal policies: An armoury of instruments to recover growth sustainably," Estudios y Perspectivas – Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia 45418, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Ghesla, Claus & Grieder, Manuel & Schubert, Renate, 2020. "Nudging the poor and the rich – A field study on the distributional effects of green electricity defaults," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Daniela Remolina-Figueroa & David A. Prieto-Torres & Wesley Dáttilo & Ernesto Salgado Díaz & Laura E. Nuñez Rosas & Claudia Rodríguez-Flores & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza & María del Coro Arizmendi, 2022. "Together forever? Hummingbird-plant relationships in the face of climate warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Camila Gramkow & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2019. "Developing Green: A Case for the Brazilian Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; global warming; damages; risk; uncertainty; unknowns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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