IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp550.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Product and Sector Level Impact of a Hard Brexit across the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Lawless, Martina
  • Morgenroth, Edgar

Abstract

The UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) is likely to have a range of impacts, with trade flows likely to be most affected. One possible outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the EU. By examining detailed trade flows between the UK and all other EU members, matching over 5200 products to the WTO tariff applicable to external EU trade this paper shows that such an outcome would result in significantly different impacts across countries. Our estimates of exposure at the country level show an extremely wide range with reductions in trade to the UK falling by 5% (Finland) to 43% (Bulgaria) taking into account the new tariffs and the elasticity of the trade response to this price increase. Food and textiles trade are the hardest hit, with trade in these sectors reducing by up to 90%.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "The Product and Sector Level Impact of a Hard Brexit across the EU," Papers WP550, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP550.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    5. Welfens Paul J.J. & Baier Fabian & Kadiric Samir & Korus Arthur & Xiong Tian, 2019. "EU28 Capital Market Perspectives of a Hard BREXIT: Theory, Empirical Findings and Policy Options," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Iain Begg, 2016. "Brexit: Why, What Next and How?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 30-36, August.
    7. László Békési & Zsolt Kovalszky & Tímea Várnai, 2017. "Scenarios for potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2017/125, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "Le marteau du Brexit : répercussions pour les États-Unis et les relations transatlantiques au temps de Corona [The Brexit hammer : repercussions for the US and transatlantic relations in times of C," MPRA Paper 109399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Allub, Lian & Aragon, Nicolas, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of trade and FDI: The role of country size and bridge multinational production," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    11. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 93229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen, 2024. "Volatility connectedness on the central European forex markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty in Financial Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, February.
    14. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    16. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Eleonora Mavroeidi, 2018. "Beyond tariff reductions: what extra boost from trade agreement provisions?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1532, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    18. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    19. Sindri Engilbertsson & Gylfi Zoega, 2020. "The Effect of Brexit on the UK Economy (So Far)," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Capitalism, Global Change and Sustainable Development, pages 111-139, Springer.
    20. Begg, Iain, 2016. "Brexit: why, what next and how?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68861, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Burns (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.