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Recovery Scenarios for Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

Abstract

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government"s structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs007
    Note: Publisher: ESRI
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. FitzGerald, John, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: The Case of Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2001(1-March), pages 1-17.
    2. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    3. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, march.
    4. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Earnings inequality, returns to education and immigration into Ireland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 665-680, November.
    5. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2009. "The Public-Private Sector Pay Gap in Ireland: What Lies Beneath?," Papers WP321, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
    8. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09, march.
    9. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
    10. John Fitz Gerald, 1999. "Wage Formation and the Labour Market," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Frank Barry (ed.), Understanding Ireland’s Economic Growth, chapter 7, pages 137-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Kelly, Eilish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip, 2009. "Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(3), pages 339-370.
    12. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide & Barrett, Alan & Duffy, David & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Medium-Term Review 2005-2012, No. 10," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR10, march.
    14. Edgar Morgenroth, 2009. "Irish Public Capital Spending in a Recession," Papers WP298, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Joseph Durkan & Doireann Fitz Gerald & Colm Harmon, 1999. "Education and Growth in the Irish Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Frank Barry (ed.), Understanding Ireland’s Economic Growth, chapter 6, pages 119-135, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Lars Jonung & Jaakko Kiander & Pentti Vartia, 2008. "The great financial crisis in Finland and Sweden - The dynamics of boom, bust and recovery, 1985-2000," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 350, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135-157.
    2. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, march.
    3. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    4. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2011. "Governing the Irish Economy: A Triple Crisis," Working Papers 201103, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    6. Brindusa Anghel & Antonio Cabrales & Jesus M. Carro, 2016. "Evaluating A Bilingual Education Program In Spain: The Impact Beyond Foreign Language Learning," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1202-1223, April.
    7. John FitzGerald, 2012. "The Irish Economy Today: Albatross or Phoenix?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(10), pages 1239-1255, October.
    8. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, march.
    9. Whyte, Kieran & Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling HGV freight transport energy demand in Ireland and the impacts of the property construction bubble," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 245-251.
    10. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    11. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," Papers WP342, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    13. Curtis, John, 2012. "The Environment Review 2012," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS26.
    14. Harutyun Shahumyan & Brendan Williams & Laura Petrov & Walter Foley, 2014. "Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-34, September.
    15. John Curtis & Sean Lyons & Abigail O'Callaghan-Platt, 2011. "Managing household waste in Ireland: behavioural parameters and policy options," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 245-266.
    16. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Gorecki, Paul K., 2009. "The Recession, Budgets, Competition, and Regulation: Should the State Supply Bespoke Protection?," Papers BP2010/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Brindusa Anghel & Antonio Cabrales & Jesus M. Carro, 2016. "Evaluating A Bilingual Education Program In Spain: The Impact Beyond Foreign Language Learning," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1202-1223, April.
    19. repec:esr:chaptr:jacb200962 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zlatko Čehulić & Rajka Hrbić, 2019. "The impact of adopting the euro on the Croatian economy: What can be learned from other countries?," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(5), pages 73-90, December.
    21. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.
    22. McGuinness, Seamus & Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McCoy, Selina & Smyth, Emer & Timoney, Kevin, 2012. "A Study of Future Demand for Higher Education in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS30.
    23. Deane, Paul & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan & Walsh, Darragh, 2013. "Irish and British Historical Electricity Prices and Implications for the Future," Papers WP452, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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