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On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?

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  • Robert Kelly

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Kieran McQuinn

    (Economic and Social Research institute (ESRI))

Abstract

Recently, some notable contributions suggest that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self-financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper assesses the implications for the Irish fiscal accounts of certain macroeconomic policy responses. Using a comprehensive empirical framework, the paper examines the relationship between house prices, unemployment, and mortgage arrears. Loan loss forecasts over the period 2012–14 are then generated for the mortgage book of the main Irish financial institutions under two different scenarios. It is shown that macroeconomic policies, which alleviate levels of mortgage distress, improve the solvency position of the guaranteed Irish institutions, thereby reducing the sovereign’s future capital obligations. Thus, the unique situation the sovereign finds itself in vis-´a-vis its main financial institutions may have significant implications for the net cost of a fiscal stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2014:q:3:a:3
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    Cited by:

    1. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.
    3. McGinnity, Frances & Russell, Helen & Alamir, Anousheh, 2024. "17 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), where are we now with credit and house prices in the Irish residential market?," Papers WP779, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "The changing relationship between affordability and house prices: a cross-country examination," Papers WP560, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    6. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions and tenure choice: a cross-country examination," Papers WP582, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Duffy, David & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy in a Recovering Market: Too Much too Soon?," Papers WP500, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Fiscal Policy in Good Times and in Bad: Its Impact During Different Stages of the Economic Cycle," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2022. "Examining the response of house prices to supply using a Markov regime switching approach: The case of the Irish housing market," Papers WP732, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    11. McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Property prices and Covid-19 related administrative closures: What are the implications?," Papers WP661, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Household Consumption and the Housing Net Worth Channel in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 125-147.
    13. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 944-963.
    14. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Current State of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Wendy Disch & Eva Shiel & Eoin Kenny, 2022. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2022," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2022SUM, march.
    18. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Irish house prices: Déjà vu all over again?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. McQuinn, Kieran & Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid, 2015. "Assessing the Sustainable Nature of Housing-Related Taxation Receipts: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP503, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Niall McInerney, 2016. "A Structural Model of Macroprudential Policy: the Case of Ireland," EcoMod2016 9643, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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