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Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

Author

Listed:
  • Harutyun Shahumyan

    (School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland)

  • Brendan Williams

    (School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland)

  • Laura Petrov

    (Modelling and Coordination of Scientific Support for Impact Assessment, European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Brussels 1050, Belgium)

  • Walter Foley

    (School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland)

Abstract

In the context of sustainable urban development, the application of selected indicators integrated with scenario simulation and analysis can contribute to evidence-based decision making. This paper discusses the application of land use modelling and opportunity mapping approaches to evaluate regional development scenarios for the Greater Dublin Region in the period to 2026 evolving from research initially developed with the Dublin Regional Authority. This involved the simulation of four different future regional development scenarios using an adapted version of the MOLAND model with opportunity maps based on combined spatial indicators corresponding to these scenarios. The results produce valuable information for policy makers and planners assisting the evaluation of the consequences of their decisions in both a spatial and temporal context. This paper aims to show how current and future planning and economic policy can make targeted and evidence-based policy interventions and achieve resource efficiencies through the use of scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Harutyun Shahumyan & Brendan Williams & Laura Petrov & Walter Foley, 2014. "Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-34, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:1180-1213:d:40448
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brendan Williams & Harutyun Shahumyan & Ian Boyle & Sheila Convery & Roger White, 2012. "Utilizing an Urban-Regional Model (MOLAND) for Testing the Planning and Provision of Wastewater Treatment Capacity in the Dublin Region 2006–2026," Planning Practice & Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248.
    2. Krugman, Paul, 1995. "Innovation and agglomeration: Two parables suggested by city-size distributions," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 371-390, November.
    3. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eda Ustaoglu & Brendan Williams & Laura Petrov, 2017. "Scenario Analysis of Alternative Land Development Patterns for the Leipzig-Halle Region: Implications for Transport-Land-Use Sustainability," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(1), pages 108-129.
    2. Eduardo Gomes, 2020. "Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Juliana Mio de Souza & Paulo Morgado & Eduarda Marques da Costa & Luiz Fernando de Novaes Vianna, 2023. "Predictive Scenarios of LULC Changes Supporting Public Policies: The Case of Chapecó River Ecological Corridor, Santa Catarina/Brazil," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Irena Ištoka Otković & Barbara Karleuša & Aleksandra Deluka-Tibljaš & Sanja Šurdonja & Mario Marušić, 2021. "Combining Traffic Microsimulation Modeling and Multi-Criteria Analysis for Sustainable Spatial-Traffic Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Silvia Tobias & Bronwyn Price, 2020. "How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.

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