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Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation And Capital Flow Volatility In Emerging Asia

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  • JOHN BEIRNE

    (Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan)

  • NUOBU RENZHI

    (Capital University of Economics and Business, P. R. China1Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan)

  • ULRICH VOLZ

    (SOAS, University of London, UK)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of local currency bond markets (LCBMs) and foreign investor participation in these markets in capital flow volatility in emerging Asian economies over the period 1999 to 2020. Using a panel analysis and impulse response functions generated from a panel structural vector autoregression, we show that greater development of LCBMs across 10 Asian emerging economies in terms of capitalization helps to mitigate against the capital flow volatility, while foreign investor participation has the opposite effect, particularly for less developed LCBMs. Our findings have policy implications from a financial stability perspective, whereby continued efforts to enhance LCBMs while reducing reliance on foreign investors should be encouraged. Strengthening the local investor base and mobilizing domestic resources through LCBMs ought to be a priority for raising long-term capital that will enable the financing of sustainable investment and development. Our findings also suggest that greater efforts are needed to enhance foreign exchange hedging arrangements for foreign investors in LCBMs, particularly in times of heightened financial stress.

Suggested Citation

  • John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2024. "Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation And Capital Flow Volatility In Emerging Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 69(02), pages 517-541, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:69:y:2024:i:02:n:s0217590821410083
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590821410083
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2022. "Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 411-447, September.
    2. Juan Carlos MORENO-BRID & Lorenzo NALIN & Edgar PEREZ-MEDINA, 2023. "Current External Challenges To The Economic Expansion Of Emerging Markets: An Analysis Of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, Ghana And India For 2006-2021," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(2), pages 5-36.
    3. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: International Real and Financial Spillovers in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 1288, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Pedersoli, Silvia & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2023. "Public debt management and private financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    5. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Pérez-Medina, 2022. "External challenges to the economic expansion of emerging markets in the post-COVID 19 and post-COP26 era: A balance-of-payments constrained growth (BPCG) perspective," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(303), pages 313-354.
    6. Yushi Chen & Ulrich Volz, 2022. "Scaling up sustainable investment through blockchain‐based project bonds," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
    7. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Perez-Medina, 2023. "Current External Challenges to the Economic Expansion of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series inetwp201, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    8. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2023. "When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: Monetary Policy Spillovers to Asian Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 519-540, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flow volatility; local currency bond markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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