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Flows to emerging market and developing economies – Global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Ulrich Volz

    (University of London)

Abstract

This article investigates the empirical significance of push and pull factors of different types of capital flows – FDI, portfolio and “others” (including loans) – to emerging market and developing economies. Based on an extensive quarterly mixed timeseries panel dataset for 32 emerging market and developing economies from 2009 to 2017, we rigorously test down broadly specified empirical models for the three types of capital inflows to parsimonious final models in a Hendry-type fashion. Regarding push factors, our study focuses on the relative importance of global liquidity and economic policy uncertainty vis-àvis country-specific pull factors when assessing the drivers of capital flows to a broad set of emerging market and developing economies. Global liquidity, economic policy uncertainty and other risk factors, such as the US yield spread, turn out to be the most significant drivers of portfolio flows, but are also relevant to the other two categories of flows. Our capital flow-type specific estimation results underscore the need for policymakers to analyse the composition of observed capital inflows to assess vulnerabilities related to external financing and safeguard financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2019. "Flows to emerging market and developing economies – Global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 32-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:afj:journ3:v:9:y:2019:i:1:p:32-50
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    File URL: https://journals.co.za/content/journal/10520/EJC-17ce884219
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2024. "Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation And Capital Flow Volatility In Emerging Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 69(02), pages 517-541, March.
    2. Ftiti, Zied & Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Louhichi, Wael & Anastasiou, Dimitris & Awijen, Haithem, 2024. "Revisiting capital flow drivers: Regional dynamics, constraints, and geopolitical influences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Beirne, John Beirne & Renzhi, Nuobu & Sugandi, Eric Alexander & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Virender Kumar & Naveen Kumar & Puneet Kumar Arora & Apoorva Gupta, 2024. "Does domestic monetary policy affect foreign direct investment to India?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 173-181.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; push- and pull factors of capital flows; economic policy uncertainty; emerging market and developing economies; global liquidity; international spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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