IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v63y2018i01ns0217590817440040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage Lending And Financial Stability In Asia

Author

Listed:
  • PETER J. MORGAN

    (Asia Development Bank Institute, Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6008, Japan)

  • YAN ZHANG

    (Asia Development Bank Institute, Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6008, Japan)

Abstract

We estimated the effect of the share of mortgage lending by individual banks (together with some control variables) on two measures of financial stability — the bank Z-score and the non-performing loan ratio — for a sample of 397 banks in 19 emerging Asian economies for the period 2003–2014 from the Bankscope database. We find evidence that an increased share of mortgage lending is positive for financial stability, specifically by lowering the probability of default by financial institutions and reducing the non-performing loan ratio, at least in non-crisis periods, for levels of mortgage shares up to 23–65%. For higher levels of mortgage lending shares, there is some evidence that the impact on financial stability turns negative. We also find that the share of mortgage lending can be a useful measure of both financial development and financial inclusion.This finding most likely reflects the effect of a higher share of mortgage lending in diversifying the mix of banks’ assets and thereby reducing overall risk. However, if the share of mortgage lending is too high, then the diversification effect diminishes. Therefore, the challenge is to balance the expected improvement in financial stability due to asset diversification against negative impacts that might result from easier lending standards or too rapid increases in mortgage lending that could trigger a bubble in the housing market. This highlights the need for prudent monetary policy and macroprudential policy measures to forestall the development of such bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Morgan & Yan Zhang, 2018. "Mortgage Lending And Financial Stability In Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(01), pages 125-146, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:63:y:2018:i:01:n:s0217590817440040
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817440040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590817440040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590817440040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. Morgan & Victor Pontines, 2014. "Financial Stability and Financial Inclusion," Microeconomics Working Papers 24278, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Martin Čihák & Heiko Hesse, 2010. "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 95-113, December.
    3. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    6. Morgan, Peter & Regis, Paulo José & Salike, Nimesh, 2015. "Loan-to-Value Policy as a Macroprudential Tool: The Case of Residential Mortgage Loans in Asia," RIEI Working Papers 2015-03, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    8. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    11. Adele Atkinson & Flore-Anne Messy, 2013. "Promoting Financial Inclusion through Financial Education: OECD/INFE Evidence, Policies and Practice," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 34, OECD Publishing.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:139-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    16. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2007. "Cooperative Banks and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2007/002, International Monetary Fund.
    17. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    18. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter J. Morgan & Yan Zhang, 2017. "Mortgage lending, banking crises, and financial stability in Asia and Europe," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 463-482, December.
    2. Morgan, Peter & Zhang, Yan, 2015. "ADBI WP543: Mortgage Lending and Financial Stability in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 543, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for the Middle East and North African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2058-2072.
    4. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Martin Wagner, 2006. "The Performance of Panel Unit Root and Stationarity Tests: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 85-116.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    6. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong & Park, Sang-Do, 2018. "How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 320-331.
    7. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Jun, Sangjoon, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70, March.
    9. Ngozi E. Egbuna (PhD) & Maimuna John-Sowe & Dauda Mohammed (PhD) & Hissan Abubakari & Eric L. Sambolah & Kormay Adams, 2020. "Uncertainty And Economic Performance In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz): A Fixed Effect Panel Threshold Approach," Working Papers 19, West African Monetary Institute.
    10. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
    12. Christopoulos, Dimitris & McAdam, Peter, 2017. "Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-61.
    13. Erdoğan, Seyfettin & Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Gedikli, Ayfer, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, financial development and economic growth: An investigation on Next-11 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    15. Seyfettin Erdo an & Durmu a r Y ld r m & Ayfer Gedikli, 2020. "Relationship Between Oil Revenues and Education in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 193-201.
    16. MAGAZZINO, Cosimo & LEOGRANDE, Angelo, 2021. "Subjective Well-Being In Italian Regions: A Panel Data Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18.
    17. Hajer Dachraoui & Maamar Sebri & Mahmoud M. A. Dwedar, 2021. "Natural Resources and Illicit Financial Flows from BRICS Countries," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, March.
    18. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    19. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    20. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:63:y:2018:i:01:n:s0217590817440040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.