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Climate Change, Agriculture And Migration: Evidence From Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • KAZI IQBAL

    (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh)

  • PARITOSH K. ROY

    (Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh)

Abstract

Changes in climatic variables influence households' decision regarding livelihood options and strategies to mitigate income shocks. Migration is one of the most frequently adopted coping strategies that affected people use. This paper studies how the changes in climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall impact migration through agriculture. Using district level data (64 districts) for three inter-census periods (1974–1980, 1981–1990 and 1991–2000), fixed effect (FE) and IV results show that uncertainty about changes in temperature and rainfall impacts migration through agricultural productivity. We found that a one standard deviation decrease in real per capita revenue increases net out-migration rates by 1.4% to 2.4%. The results suggest a predicted increase in rainfall uncertainty would increase net out-migration rates by 20% in 2030 relative to 1990, assuming that there will be no behavioral response from the farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazi Iqbal & Paritosh K. Roy, 2015. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Migration: Evidence From Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:06:y:2015:i:02:n:s2010007815500062
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007815500062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2000. "Bangladesh : Climate Change and Sustainable Development," World Bank Publications - Reports 15706, The World Bank Group.
    2. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    2. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Heman D. Lohano, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agricultural Revenues and Internal Migration: Evidence from Pakistan," Working papers 99, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    4. Apsara KARKI NEPAL & Mani NEPAL & Randall BLUFFSTONE, 2023. "International labour migration, farmland fallowing, livelihood diversification and technology adoption in Nepal," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 162(4), pages 687-713, December.
    5. Shuai Zhou & Guangqing Chi, 2024. "How do environmental stressors influence migration? A meta-regression analysis of environmental migration literature," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(2), pages 41-100.
    6. Kazi Iqbal & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Mohammad Rezoanul Hoque & Nahian Azad Shashi, 2024. "Non‐farm activity reduces migration: Evidence from Bangladesh," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(3), May.
    7. D. Abdoul Karim Zanhouo & A. Berenger Ismael Nana, 2019. "Modeling Climate Change Impact on Health and Population Migration: A Systematic Review," Economics Literature, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, June.
    8. Mukherjee, Manisha, 2022. "Climate change and migration: Reviewing the role of access to agricultural adaptation measures," MERIT Working Papers 2022-039, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    11. Linjun Lu & Qing-Chang Lu & ABM Sertajur Rahman, 2015. "Residence and Job Location Change Choice Behavior under Flooding and Cyclone Impacts in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; migration; agriculture; Bangladesh; Q54; Q1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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