IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ccexxx/v04y2013isupp0ns2010007813400071.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy

Author

Listed:
  • A. SCHRÖDER

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • T. TRABER

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • C. KEMFERT

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities on the European power markets. We use the partial equilibrium model EMELIE-ESY with focus on electricity markets in order to determine how private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and operation over the horizon 2010 to 2050. For the year 2050, the model projects a minor increase of power consumption of 10% under current climate policy, and a balanced pathway for consumption under ambitious climate policy compared to 2010 levels. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models that predict strong consumption increases of 44% to 48% by 2050 and claim competitiveness of nuclear power and CCS options. Under ambitious climate policy, our findings correspond with major increases of wholesale electricity market prices and comparatively less pronounced emission price increases, which trigger no investments into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a strongly diminishing share of nuclear energy.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Schröder & T. Traber & C. Kemfert, 2013. "Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:supp0:n:s2010007813400071
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007813400071
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010007813400071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Andreas Schröder & Friedrich Kunz & Jan Meiss & Roman Mendelevitch & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Current and Prospective Costs of Electricity Generation until 2050," Data Documentation 68, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Refunding ETS proceeds to spur the diffusion of renewable energies: An analysis based on the dynamic oligopolistic electricity market model EMELIE," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-41, January.
    4. -, 2011. "The economics of climate change in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38620, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2013. "The Infrastructure Implications Of The Energy Transformation In Europe Until 2050 — Lessons From The Emf28 Modeling Exercise," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-26.
    2. Zeng, Yingying, 2017. "Indirect double regulation and the carbon ETSs linking: The case of coal-fired generation in the EU and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 268-280.
    3. Huppmann, Daniel & Egerer, Jonas, 2015. "National-strategic investment in European power transmission capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 191-203.
    4. Geoffrey J. Blanford & Christoph Weissbart, 2019. "A Framework for Modeling the Dynamics of Power Markets – The EU-REGEN Model," ifo Working Paper Series 307, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Lukáš Rečka & Milan Ščasný, 2017. "Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    6. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Guibert, Paul & Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2020. "Variable time-step: A method for improving computational tractability for energy system models with long-term storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Karsten Neuhoff & Sophia Rüster & Sebastian Schwenen, 2015. "Power Market Design beyond 2020: Time to Revisit Key Elements?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1456, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Christian Gambardella & Michael Pahle & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2016. "Do Benefits from Dynamic Tariffing Rise? Welfare Effects of Real-Time Pricing under Carbon-Tax-Induced Variable Renewable Energy Supply," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1621, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Stephen Jarvis & Olivier Deschenes & Akshaya Jha, 2022. "The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1311-1346.
    5. Gerbaulet, Clemens & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia & Lorenz, Casimir & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "European electricity sector decarbonization under different levels of foresight," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 141, pages 973-987.
    6. Iegor Riepin & Thomas Mobius & Felix Musgens, 2020. "Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems -- is it worth the effort?," Papers 2008.07221, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    7. Vassilis M. Charitopoulos & Mathilde Fajardy & Chi Kong Chyong & David M. Reiner, 2022. "The case of 100% electrification of domestic heat in Great Britain," Working Papers EPRG2206, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    9. Helm, Carsten & Mier, Mathias, 2021. "Steering the energy transition in a world of intermittent electricity supply: Optimal subsidies and taxes for renewables and storage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Hörnlein, Lena, 2019. "The value of gas-fired power plants in markets with high shares of renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1078-1098.
    11. Thao Pham, 2016. "Energiewende and competition in Germany: Diagnosing market power in wholesale electricity market," Post-Print hal-02568253, HAL.
    12. Casimir Lorenz & Clemens Gerbaulet, 2017. "Wind Providing Balancing Reserves: An Application to the German Electricity System of 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1655, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Frysztacki, Martha Maria & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Brown, Tom, 2023. "Inverse methods: How feasible are spatially low-resolved capacity expansion modelling results when disaggregated at high spatial resolution?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    14. Jan Abrell & Hannes Weigt, 2016. "Investments in a Combined Energy Network Model: Substitution between Natural Gas and Electricity?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(4), pages 63-86, October.
    15. Petitet, Marie & Perrot, Marie & Mathieu, Sébastien & Ernst, Damien & Phulpin, Yannick, 2019. "Impact of gate closure time on the efficiency of power systems balancing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 562-573.
    16. Bruninx, Kenneth & Madzharov, Darin & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 251-261.
    17. Leppänen, Simo & Solanko, Laura & Kosonen, Riitta, 2015. "Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Richstein, Jörn C. & Lorenz, Casimir & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2020. "An auction story: How simple bids struggle with uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Denholm, Paul & Brinkman, Greg & Mai, Trieu, 2018. "How low can you go? The importance of quantifying minimum generation levels for renewable integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 249-257.
    20. Topi Rasku & Juha Kiviluoma, 2018. "A Comparison of Widespread Flexible Residential Electric Heating and Energy Efficiency in a Future Nordic Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:supp0:n:s2010007813400071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/cce/cce.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.