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Land-Use Change And Greenhouse Gas Emissions In The Fapri-Card Model System: Addressing Bias And Uncertainty

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  • AMANI E. ELOBEID

    (568F, Heady Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

  • MIGUEL A. CARRIQUIRY

    (578D, Heady Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

  • JACINTO F. FABIOSA

    (568E, Heady Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

Abstract

Even with a normalized and standardized biofuel shock, the wide range of land-use change estimates and their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have raised concern on the adequacy of existing agricultural models in this new area of analysis. In particular, reducing bias and improving precision of impact estimates are of primary concern to policy makers. This paper provides a detailed overview of the FAPRI-CARD agricultural modeling system, with particular emphasis on the modifications recently introduced to reduce bias in the results. We illustrate the impact of these new model features using the example of the new yield specification that now includes updated trend parameter, intensification and extensification effects, and a spatially disaggregated Brazil specification. The paper also provides a taxonomy of the many types of uncertainty surrounding any analysis, including parameter-coefficient uncertainty and exogenous variable uncertainty, identifying where specific types of uncertainty originate, and how they interact. Finally, FAPRI-CARD's long experience in using stochastic analysis is presented as a viable approach in addressing uncertainty in the analysis of changes in the agricultural sector, associated land-use change, and impacts on GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Amani E. Elobeid & Miguel A. Carriquiry & Jacinto F. Fabiosa, 2012. "Land-Use Change And Greenhouse Gas Emissions In The Fapri-Card Model System: Addressing Bias And Uncertainty," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:03:y:2012:i:03:n:s2010007812500145
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007812500145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Danny G. Le Roy & Amani E. Elobeid & K. K. Klein, 2011. "The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59(4), pages 457-474, December.
    2. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 673-673.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    5. Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Chad E. Hart, 2008. "2006/07 Iowa Grain and Biofuel Flow Study: A Survey Report, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-sr102, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Jacinto F. Fabiosa, 2009. "Land-Use Credits to Corn Ethanol: Accounting for Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles as a Feed Substitute in Swine Rations," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 09-wp489, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    7. Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Dong, Fengxia & Du, Xiaodong & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Mulik, Kranti, 2010. "Modeling The Effects Of Pasture Expansion On Emissions From Land-Use Change," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 95944, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    8. Jacinto F. Fabiosa, 2009. "Land-Use Credits to Corn Ethanol: Accounting for Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles as a Feed Substitute in Swine Rations," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp489, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Oecd, 2006. "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-57.
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    1. De Corato, Ugo & De Bari, Isabella & Viola, Egidio & Pugliese, Massimo, 2018. "Assessing the main opportunities of integrated biorefining from agro-bioenergy co/by-products and agroindustrial residues into high-value added products associated to some emerging markets: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 326-346.
    2. Alexandre Gohin, 2014. "Assessing the Land Use Changes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biofuels: Elucidating the Crop Yield Effects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 575-586.

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