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Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People

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  • Harald Ibrekk
  • M. Granger Morgan

Abstract

Nine pictorial displays for communicating quantitative information about the value of an uncertain quantity, x, were evaluated for their ability to communicate x̄, p(x > a) and p(b > x > a) to well‐educated semi‐and nontechnical subjects. Different displays performed best in different applications. Cumulative distribution functions alone can severely mislead some subjects in estimating the mean. A “rusty” knowledge of statistics did not improve performance, and even people with a good basic knowledge of statistics did not perform as well as one would like. Until further experiments are performed, the authors recommend the use of a cumulative distribution function plotted directly above a probability density function with the same horizontal scale, and with the location of the mean clearly marked on both curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ibrekk & M. Granger Morgan, 1987. "Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 519-529, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:4:p:519-529
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00488.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baruch Fischhoff & Don MacGregor, 1983. "Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(4), pages 229-236, December.
    2. Max Henrion & M. Granger Morgan, 1985. "A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3), pages 195-208, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Robin Gregory & Nathan Dieckmann & Ellen Peters & Lee Failing & Graham Long & Martin Tusler, 2012. "Deliberative Disjunction: Expert and Public Understanding of Outcome Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2071-2083, December.
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    4. John A. Edwards & Frank J. Snyder & Pamela M. Allen & Kevin A. Makinson & David M. Hamby, 2012. "Decision Making for Risk Management: A Comparison of Graphical Methods for Presenting Quantitative Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2055-2070, December.
    5. Ida Hogganvik Grøndahl & Mass Soldal Lund & Ketil Stølen, 2011. "Reducing the Effort to Comprehend Risk Models: Text Labels Are Often Preferred Over Graphical Means," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(11), pages 1813-1831, November.
    6. Paul K. J. Han & William M. P. Klein & Tom Lehman & Bill Killam & Holly Massett & Andrew N. Freedman, 2011. "Communication of Uncertainty Regarding Individualized Cancer Risk Estimates," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(2), pages 354-366, March.
    7. Pamela M. Allen & John A. Edwards & Frank J. Snyder & Kevin A. Makinson & David M. Hamby, 2014. "The Effect of Cognitive Load on Decision Making with Graphically Displayed Uncertainty Information," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1495-1505, August.
    8. Lauren A. Mayer & Angela A. Hung & Joanne K. Yoong & Jack Clift & Caroline Tassot, 2013. "Designing Better Pension Benefits Statements Current Status, Best Practices and Insights from the Field of Judgment and Decisionmaking," Working Papers WR-951, RAND Corporation.
    9. Elke U. Weber & Niklas Siebenmorgen & Martin Weber, 2005. "Communicating Asset Risk: How Name Recognition and the Format of Historic Volatility Information Affect Risk Perception and Investment Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 597-609, June.
    10. Robert L. McDonald & Thomas A. Rietz, 2018. "Ratings and Asset Allocation: An Experimental Analysis," NBER Working Papers 25046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. To N. Nguyen & Paul M. Jakus & Mary Riddel & W. Douglass Shaw, 2010. "An Empirical Model of Perceived Mortality Risks for Selected U.S. Arsenic Hot Spots," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1550-1562, October.
    12. Christopher H. Jackson & Laura Bojke & Simon G. Thompson & Karl Claxton & Linda D. Sharples, 2011. "A Framework for Addressing Structural Uncertainty in Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(4), pages 662-674, July.

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