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Decision Making for Risk Management: A Comparison of Graphical Methods for Presenting Quantitative Uncertainty

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  • John A. Edwards
  • Frank J. Snyder
  • Pamela M. Allen
  • Kevin A. Makinson
  • David M. Hamby

Abstract

Previous research has shown that people err when making decisions aided by probability information. Surprisingly, there has been little exploration into the accuracy of decisions made based on many commonly used probabilistic display methods. Two experiments examined the ability of a comprehensive set of such methods to effectively communicate critical information to a decision maker and influence confidence in decision making. The second experiment investigated the performance of these methods under time pressure, a situational factor known to exacerbate judgmental errors. Ten commonly used graphical display methods were randomly assigned to participants. Across eight scenarios in which a probabilistic outcome was described, participants were asked questions regarding graph interpretation (e.g., mean) and made behavioral choices (i.e., act; do not act) based on the provided information indicated that decision‐maker accuracy differed by graphical method; error bars and boxplots led to greatest mean estimation and behavioral choice accuracy whereas complementary cumulative probability distribution functions were associated with the highest probability estimation accuracy. Under time pressure, participant performance decreased when making behavioral choices.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Edwards & Frank J. Snyder & Pamela M. Allen & Kevin A. Makinson & David M. Hamby, 2012. "Decision Making for Risk Management: A Comparison of Graphical Methods for Presenting Quantitative Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2055-2070, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:12:p:2055-2070
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01839.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Ibrekk & M. Granger Morgan, 1987. "Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 519-529, December.
    2. Marilyn M. Schapira & Ann B. Nattinger & Colleen A. McHorney, 2001. "Frequency or Probability? A Qualitative Study of Risk Communication Formats Used in Health Care," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 21(6), pages 459-467, December.
    3. Branden B. Johnson & Paul Slovic, 1995. "Presenting Uncertainty in Health Risk Assessment: Initial Studies of Its Effects on Risk Perception and Trust," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 485-494, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean M Carlson & David L Alderson & Sean P Stromberg & Danielle S Bassett & Emily M Craparo & Francisco Guiterrez-Villarreal & Thomas Otani, 2014. "Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Pamela M. Allen & John A. Edwards & Frank J. Snyder & Kevin A. Makinson & David M. Hamby, 2014. "The Effect of Cognitive Load on Decision Making with Graphically Displayed Uncertainty Information," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1495-1505, August.
    3. Karin Eberhard, 2023. "The effects of visualization on judgment and decision-making: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 167-214, February.

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