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Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors

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  • D. Brent McRoberts
  • Steven M. Quiring
  • Seth D. Guikema

Abstract

Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two‐step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two‐step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Brent McRoberts & Steven M. Quiring & Seth D. Guikema, 2018. "Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2722-2737, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:12:p:2722-2737
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven Quiring & Laiyin Zhu & Seth Guikema, 2011. "Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 365-390, July.
    2. Liu, Haibin & Davidson, Rachel A. & Apanasovich, Tatiyana V., 2008. "Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 897-912.
    3. Seung‐Ryong Han & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2009. "Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts Using Generalized Additive Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1443-1453, October.
    4. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2014. "Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1069-1078, June.
    5. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
    6. Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring & Seung‐Ryong Han, 2010. "Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1744-1752, December.
    7. Guikema, S.D. & Quiring, S.M., 2012. "Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 178-182.
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    1. Jasiūnas, Justinas & Heikkinen, Tatu & Lund, Peter D. & Láng-Ritter, Ilona, 2023. "Resilience of electric grid to extreme wind: Considering local details at national scale," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Zhai, Chengwei & Chen, Thomas Ying-jeh & White, Anna Grace & Guikema, Seth David, 2021. "Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Oh, Seongmun & Jufri, Fauzan Hanif & Choi, Min-Hee & Jung, Jaesung, 2022. "A study of tropical cyclone impact on the power distribution grid in South Korea for estimating damage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Otto, Räisänen & Susanne, Suvanto & Jouni, Haapaniemi & Jukka, Lassila, 2023. "Crown snow load outage risk model for overhead lines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    5. Peter L. Watson & Marika Koukoula & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Influence of the Characteristics of Weather Information in a Thunderstorm-Related Power Outage Prediction System," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Justinas Jasiūnas & Ilona Láng-Ritter & Tatu Heikkinen & Peter D. Lund, 2023. "Electricity Load Lost in the Largest Windstorms—Is the Fragility-Based Model up to the Task?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-23, July.

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