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Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk

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  • Gina L. Tonn
  • Seth D. Guikema
  • Celso M. Ferreira
  • Steven M. Quiring

Abstract

In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind‐related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography.

Suggested Citation

  • Gina L. Tonn & Seth D. Guikema & Celso M. Ferreira & Steven M. Quiring, 2016. "Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1936-1947, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:10:p:1936-1947
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven Quiring & Laiyin Zhu & Seth Guikema, 2011. "Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 365-390, July.
    2. Seung‐Ryong Han & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2009. "Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts Using Generalized Additive Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1443-1453, October.
    3. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2014. "Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1069-1078, June.
    4. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
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    Cited by:

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    2. H. Klammler & P. S. C. Rao & K. Hatfield, 2018. "Modeling dynamic resilience in coupled technological-social systems subjected to stochastic disturbance regimes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 140-159, March.
    3. Diana Mitsova & Ann-Margaret Esnard & Alka Sapat & Betty S. Lai, 2018. "Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 689-709, November.

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