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Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems

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  • Hughes, William
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.
  • Wanik, David
  • Pensado, Osvaldo
  • Yuan, Hao
  • Zhang, Jintao

Abstract

Several disastrous storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012, that brought massive area power outages for several days and even weeks in some areas, highlight the necessity of enhancing the physical power distribution system, including the pole-wire network. To develop grid hardening strategies, accurate damage predictions from extreme weather events are needed to make decisions implementing cost-effective hazard preparation measures. Physics-based modeling supported by historical data has been found to better link extreme weather events, structural failure, and power outages for improved prediction of pole-wire system performance. A damage modeling framework for the overhead power distribution system (DM-OPD) is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of grid reliability enhancements under budgetary constraints. Monte Carlo simulation is used to consider various uncertainties of the power distribution system. The methodology is presented alongside a case study of conditions imposed by Hurricane Sandy in the State of Connecticut considering effects of aging infrastructure and pole replacement as a demonstrative hardening action. Due to uncertainties regarding several economic parameters, various scenarios are presented for utility companies to analyze the cost-effectiveness. The results indicate infrastructure age is a critical factor in the power system resilience under extreme storm events, with pole replacement having high potential for outage reductions. However, with its high associated costs, pole replacement should be reserved only for highly weakened poles.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Wanik, David & Pensado, Osvaldo & Yuan, Hao & Zhang, Jintao, 2021. "Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308565
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107367
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    10. Shen, Zhonghui & Wei, Kai, 2021. "Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Lu, Qin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Integrating dynamic Bayesian network and physics-based modeling for risk analysis of a time-dependent power distribution system during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    12. Aizpurua, J.I. & Stewart, B.G. & McArthur, S.D.J. & Penalba, M. & Barrenetxea, M. & Muxika, E. & Ringwood, J.V., 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    13. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Štěpán Kavan & Olga Dvořáčková & Jiří Pokorný & Lenka Brumarová, 2021. "Long-Term Power Outage and Preparedness of the Population of a Region in the Czech Republic—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Ghosh, Puspendu & De, Mala, 2023. "A stochastic investment decision making method for distribution system resilience enhancement considering automation, hardening and distributed energy resources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Jalilpoor, Kamran & Oshnoei, Arman & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad, 2022. "Network hardening and optimal placement of microgrids to improve transmission system resilience: A two-stage linear program," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    17. Hughes, William & Watson, Peter L. & Cerrai, Diego & Zhang, Xinxuan & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Zhang, Wei & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2024. "Assessing grid hardening strategies to improve power system performance during storms using a hybrid mechanistic-machine learning outage prediction model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    18. Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Wu, Feng & Pan, Xueping & Wang, Zhaoyu, 2022. "A systematic review on power system resilience from the perspective of generation, network, and load," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Tian, Meng & Dong, Zhengcheng & Gong, Li & Wang, Xianpei, 2024. "Line hardening strategies for resilient power systems considering cyber-topology interdependence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Zhang, Jintao & Bagtzoglou, Yiannis & Zhu, Jin & Li, Baikun & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Fragility-based system performance assessment of critical power infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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