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A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose‐Response Estimation

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  • Kyoji Furukawa
  • Munechika Misumi
  • John B. Cologne
  • Harry M. Cullings

Abstract

In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose‐response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose‐response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece‐wise‐linear dose‐response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose‐response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low‐dose radiation exposures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyoji Furukawa & Munechika Misumi & John B. Cologne & Harry M. Cullings, 2016. "A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose‐Response Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1211-1223, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:6:p:1211-1223
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michela Bia & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Alessandra Mattei, 2014. "A Stata package for the application of semiparametric estimators of dose–response functions," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(3), pages 580-604, September.
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    4. Kyoji Furukawa & John B. Cologne & Yukiko Shimizu & N. Phillip Ross, 2009. "Predicting Future Excess Events in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 885-899, June.
    5. Govindarajulu Usha S & Malloy Elizabeth J & Ganguli Bhaswati & Spiegelman Donna & Eisen Ellen A, 2009. "The Comparison of Alternative Smoothing Methods for Fitting Non-Linear Exposure-Response Relationships with Cox Models in a Simulation Study," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, January.
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