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Daily Variation in Natural Disaster Casualties: Information Flows, Safety, and Opportunity Costs in Tornado Versus Hurricane Strikes

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  • Sammy Zahran
  • Daniele Tavani
  • Stephan Weiler

Abstract

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at‐risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering‐in‐place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered.

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  • Sammy Zahran & Daniele Tavani & Stephan Weiler, 2013. "Daily Variation in Natural Disaster Casualties: Information Flows, Safety, and Opportunity Costs in Tornado Versus Hurricane Strikes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1265-1280, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:7:p:1265-1280
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01920.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Zhang & X. Ni & H. Huang & J. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    2. Alexandre Mornet & Thomas Opitz & Michel Luzi & Stéphane Loisel, 2015. "Index for predicting insurance claims from wind storms with an application in France," Post-Print hal-01081758, HAL.
    3. Alexandre Mornet & Thomas Opitz & Michel Luzi & Stéphane Loisel, 2015. "Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(11), pages 2029-2056, November.
    4. Alexandre Mornet & Thomas Opitz & Michel Luzi & Stéphane Loisel, 2014. "Construction of an Index that links Wind Speeds and Strong Claim Rate of Insurers after a Storm in France," Working Papers hal-01081758, HAL.
    5. Pugatch, Todd, 2019. "Tropical storms and mortality under climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 172-182.
    6. N. Zhang & X. Y. Ni & H. Huang & J. L. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    7. Laetitia H. M. Schmitt & Hilary M. Graham & Piran C. L. White, 2016. "Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, November.

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