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Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

Author

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  • Stav Shapira
  • Limor Aharonson-Daniel
  • Igal Shohet
  • Corinne Peek-Asa
  • Yaron Bar-Dayan

Abstract

Earthquakes pose substantial risks of human health. Preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce earthquake-related injuries and deaths and information from casualty models that predict earthquake outcomes can help communities prepare. This study identifies epidemiologic and medical risk factors for earthquake casualties, and compares them with engineering casualty models for the purpose of providing evidence that integrates these approaches. It aims to improve earthquake casualty modeling and to offer better accurate estimations. Epidemiological studies that used analytical designs and reported risk factors related to earthquake-induced casualties and studies that examined the association between medical preparedness and earthquake-induced casualties were reviewed. Engineering casualty estimation models were reviewed to identify which risk factors were considered in the models. Epidemiological studies identified the following risk factors: gender, age, socioeconomic status, physical disability and human behavior. Medical preparedness factors were also related to earthquake-induced injury and death. Global casualty estimation models do not currently consider these factors. This study provides evidence that integrating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population and levels of medical preparedness into the existing casualty estimation models may improve their accuracy. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Stav Shapira & Limor Aharonson-Daniel & Igal Shohet & Corinne Peek-Asa & Yaron Bar-Dayan, 2015. "Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1447-1462, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:2:p:1447-1462
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1780-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Goran Grozdanić & Vladimir M. Cvetković & Tin Lukić & Aleksandar Ivanov, 2024. "Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Analysis in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-34, April.
    2. Stav Shapira & Lena Novack & Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel, 2016. "An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Muhammet Gul & Ali Fuat Guneri, 2016. "An artificial neural network-based earthquake casualty estimation model for Istanbul city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2163-2178, December.
    4. Tongyan Zheng & Lei Li & Chong Xu & Yuandong Huang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Earthquake Distribution and Associated Losses in Chinese Mainland from 1949 to 2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Chaoxu Xia & Gaozhong Nie & Huayue Li & Xiwei Fan & Wenhua Qi, 2023. "A composite database of casualty-inducing earthquakes in mainland China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3321-3351, April.
    6. Stav Shapira & Tsafrir Levi & Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel, 2018. "The impact of behavior on the risk of injury and death during an earthquake: a simulation-based study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1059-1074, April.
    7. Chen, Weiyi & Zhang, Limao, 2022. "An automated machine learning approach for earthquake casualty rate and economic loss prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Tingting Ji & Hsi-Hsien Wei & Igal M. Shohet & Feng Xiong, 2021. "Risk-based resilience concentration assessment of community to seismic hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1731-1751, September.
    9. Xia Chaoxu & Nie Gaozhong & Fan Xiwei & Li Huayue & Zhou Junxue & Zeng Xun, 2022. "A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1199-1226, January.
    10. Li, Shuang & Yu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yanjuan & Zhai, Changhai, 2018. "A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1238-1250.
    11. Erfan Firuzi & Kambod Amini Hosseini & Anooshiravan Ansari & Yasamin O. Izadkhah & Mina Rashidabadi & Mohammad Hosseini, 2020. "An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 231-250, August.

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