IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v26y2006i6p1675-1688.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Emergency Evacuation and Sheltering Behavior: A Structured Analytical Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Matt Dombroski
  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Paul Fischbeck

Abstract

We offer a general approach to predicting public compliance with emergency recommendations. It begins with a formal risk assessment of an anticipated emergency, whose parameters include factors potentially affecting and affected by behavior, as identified by social science research. Standard procedures are used to elicit scientific experts' judgments regarding these behaviors and dependencies, in the context of an emergency scenario. Their judgments are used to refine the model and scenario, enabling local emergency coordinators to predict the behavior of citizens in their area. The approach is illustrated with a case study involving a radiological dispersion device (RDD) exploded in downtown Pittsburgh, PA. Both groups of experts (national and local) predicted approximately 80–90% compliance with an order to evacuate workplaces and 60–70% compliance with an order to shelter in place at home. They predicted 10% lower compliance for people asked to shelter at the office or to evacuate their homes. They predicted 10% lower compliance should the media be skeptical, rather than supportive. They also identified preparatory policies that could improve public compliance by 20–30%. We consider the implications of these results for improving emergency risk assessment models and for anticipating and improving preparedness for disasters, using Hurricane Katrina as a further case in point.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Dombroski & Baruch Fischhoff & Paul Fischbeck, 2006. "Predicting Emergency Evacuation and Sheltering Behavior: A Structured Analytical Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1675-1688, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:6:p:1675-1688
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00833.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00833.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00833.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew J. Dombroski & Paul S. Fischbeck, 2006. "An Integrated Physical Dispersion and Behavioral Response Model for Risk Assessment of Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD) Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 501-514, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joost R. Santos & Lucia Castro Herrera & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1056-1068, June.
    2. Jinghong Wang & Siuming Lo & Qingsong Wang & Jinhua Sun & Honglin Mu, 2013. "Risk of Large‐Scale Evacuation Based on the Effectiveness of Rescue Strategies Under Different Crowd Densities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1553-1563, August.
    3. Xuewei Ji & Wenguo Weng & Weicheng Fan, 2008. "Cellular Automata‐Based Systematic Risk Analysis Approach for Emergency Response," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1247-1260, October.
    4. Ben Krishna & Anindita Paul, 2020. "Collaborative information behaviour during epidemics: The case of Nipah outbreak in Southern India," Working papers 367, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    5. Matthew S. VanDyke & Andy J. King, 2018. "Using the CAUSE Model to Understand Public Communication about Water Risks: Perspectives from Texas Groundwater District Officials on Drought and Availability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1378-1389, July.
    6. C. Natalie van der Wal & Daniel Formolo & Mark A. Robinson & Steven Gwynne, 2021. "Examining Evacuee Response to Emergency Communications with Agent-Based Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley & William J. Burns, 2014. "Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1907-1922, October.
    8. Margaret L. Brandeau & Jessica H. McCoy & Nathaniel Hupert & Jon-Erik Holty & Dena M. Bravata, 2009. "Recommendations for Modeling Disaster Responses in Public Health and Medicine: A Position Paper of the Society for Medical Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(4), pages 438-460, July.
    9. Sammy Zahran & Daniele Tavani & Stephan Weiler, 2013. "Daily Variation in Natural Disaster Casualties: Information Flows, Safety, and Opportunity Costs in Tornado Versus Hurricane Strikes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1265-1280, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lawrence M. Wein & Youngsoo Choi & Sylvie Denuit, 2010. "Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter‐in‐Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(9), pages 1315-1327, September.
    2. Fagner C. Rother & Wilson F. Rebello & Matthew J. F. Healy & Mauricio M. Silva & Paulo A. M. Cabral & Hélio C. Vital & Edson R. Andrade, 2016. "Radiological Risk Assessment by Convergence Methodology Model in RDD Scenarios," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2039-2046, November.
    3. Alessandro Tofani & Massimiliano Bartolozzi, 2008. "Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1431-1444, October.
    4. Michelle Sydes & Lorelei Hine & Angela Higginson & James McEwan & Laura Dugan & Lorraine Mazerolle, 2023. "Criminal justice interventions for preventing radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:6:p:1675-1688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.