IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v33y2013i4p606-646.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs

Author

Listed:
  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
  • Mark A. Pallansch
  • Konstantin M. Chumakov
  • Neal A. Halsey
  • Tapani Hovi
  • Philip D. Minor
  • John F. Modlin
  • Peter A. Patriarca
  • Roland W. Sutter
  • Peter F. Wright
  • Steven G.F. Wassilak
  • Stephen L. Cochi
  • Jong‐Hoon Kim
  • Kimberly M. Thompson

Abstract

With the intensifying global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses, policymakers face complex decisions related to achieving eradication and managing posteradication risks. These decisions and the expanding use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) trigger renewed interest in poliovirus immunity, particularly the role of mucosal immunity in the transmission of polioviruses. Sustained high population immunity to poliovirus transmission represents a key prerequisite to eradication, but poliovirus immunity and transmission remain poorly understood despite decades of studies. In April 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened an international group of experts on poliovirus immunology and virology to review the literature relevant for modeling poliovirus transmission, develop a consensus about related uncertainties, and identify research needs. This article synthesizes the quantitative assessments and research needs identified during the process. Limitations in the evidence from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) challenge studies and other relevant data led to differences in expert assessments, indicating the need for additional data, particularly in several priority areas for research: (1) the ability of IPV‐induced immunity to prevent or reduce excretion and affect transmission, (2) the impact of waning immunity on the probability and extent of poliovirus excretion, (3) the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness to others in different settings, and (4) the relative role of fecal‐oral versus oropharyngeal transmission. This assessment of current knowledge supports the immediate conduct of additional studies to address the gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:4:p:606-646
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12031
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florian Elmer & Isabel Seifert & Heidi Kreibich & Annegret H. Thieken, 2010. "A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 107-124, January.
    2. Walter Dowdle & Harrie Van Der Avoort & Esther De Gourville & Francis Delpeyroux & Jagadish Desphande & Tapani Hovi & Javier Martin & Mark Pallansch & Olen Kew & Chris Wolff, 2006. "Containment of Polioviruses After Eradication and OPV Cessation: Characterizing Risks to Improve Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1469, December.
    3. Anonymous, 1960. "World Health Organization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 673-674, October.
    4. Thompson, K.M. & Duintjer Tebbens, R.J. & Pallansch, M.A. & Kew, O.M. & Sutter, R.W. & Aylward, R.B. & Watkins, M. & Gary Jr., H.E. & Alexander, J. & Jafari, H. & Cochi, S.L., 2008. "The risks, costs, and benefits of possible future global policies for managing polioviruses," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(7), pages 1322-1330.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James Alexander & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. T, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 855-876, August.
    6. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James P. Alexander & Linda Venczel & Denis, 2006. "Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1571-1580, December.
    7. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
    8. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Victor M. Cáceres & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1471-1505, December.
    9. H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
    10. Anonymous, 1960. "World Health Organization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 473-475, July.
    11. Harry Otway & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1992. "Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management: Process, Context, and Pitfalls," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 83-93, March.
    12. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch, 2006. "Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1541-1556, December.
    13. Anonymous, 1960. "World Health Organization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 212-214, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 349-363, February.
    4. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    5. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Expert Review on Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 544-605, April.
    7. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    8. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    9. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    10. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 402-413, February.
    11. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Amanda Wilkinson & Ananda S. Bandyopadhyay & Jennifer L. Konopka‐Anstadt & Cara C. Burns & M. Steven Oberste & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kamran Badizadegan & , 2021. "Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019–2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 329-348, February.
    12. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    13. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Derek T. Ehrhardt & Noha H. Farag & Stephen C. Hadler & Lee M. Hampton & Maureen Martinez & Steve G.F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thomp, 2018. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1701-1717, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    3. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    5. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Expert Review on Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 544-605, April.
    7. repec:bla:ehsrev:v:30:y:1977:i:3:p:508-512 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Feyrer, James & Politi, Dimitra & Weil, David N., 2010. "The Economic Effects of Micronutrient Deficiency: Evidence from Salt Iodization in the United States," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-10, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Sh. Barzilai & A.M. Davies, 1972. "Personality and Social Aspects of Mental Disease in Jerusalem Women," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 18(1), pages 22-28, April.
    10. Brimnes, Niels, 2008. "BCG vaccination and WHO's global strategy for tuberculosis control 1948-1983," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 863-873, September.
    11. Mihaela Cazacu & Emilia Ţiţan & Daniela-Ioana Manea & Mihaela Mihai, 2021. "The Impact of Digitalization in Mitigating the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Silver Population," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 52(1(61)), pages 50-57, June.
    12. Shivalingappa B Javali & Parameshwar V Pandit, 2012. "Multiple Logistic Regression Model To Predict Risk Factors Of Oral Health Diseases," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(5), pages 73-86, June.
    13. Yu-Fu Chen & Gylfi Zoega, 2010. "Strong Hysteresis due to Age Effects," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 230, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    14. Ralph Jackson & Charles Wood & James Zboja, 2013. "The Dissolution of Ethical Decision-Making in Organizations: A Comprehensive Review and Model," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 233-250, August.
    15. Tafesse, W.;, 2018. "The effect of mandatory iodine fortification on cognitive test scores in rural India," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 18/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James Alexander & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. T, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 855-876, August.
    17. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Poliomyelitis and the Role of Risk Analysis in Global Infectious Disease Policy and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1419-1421, December.
    18. Fatin Aminah Hassan & Nobuaki Minato & Shuichi Ishida & Norashidah Mohamed Nor, 2017. "Social Environment Determinants of Life Expectancy in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 105-105, May.
    19. Macauley, Cameron, 2005. "Aggressive active case detection: a malaria control strategy based on the Brazilian model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 563-573, February.
    20. Tafesse, Wiktoria, 2022. "The effect of Universal Salt Iodization on cognitive test scores in rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    21. Politi, Dimitra, 2010. "The Impact of Iodine Deficiency Eradication on Schooling: Evidence from the Introduction of Iodized Salt in Switzerland," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-02, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:4:p:606-646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.