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Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication

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  • Kimberly M. Thompson

Abstract

This introduction to the special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context about historical efforts to manage polioviruses and reviews the insights from models developed to support risk management and policy development. Following an overview of the contents of the special issue, the introduction explores the road ahead and offers perspective on the legacy of polio eradication.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:4:p:505-515
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Poliomyelitis and the Role of Risk Analysis in Global Infectious Disease Policy and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1419-1421, December.
    2. Walter Dowdle & Harrie Van Der Avoort & Esther De Gourville & Francis Delpeyroux & Jagadish Desphande & Tapani Hovi & Javier Martin & Mark Pallansch & Olen Kew & Chris Wolff, 2006. "Containment of Polioviruses After Eradication and OPV Cessation: Characterizing Risks to Improve Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1469, December.
    3. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    4. Thompson, K.M. & Duintjer Tebbens, R.J. & Pallansch, M.A. & Kew, O.M. & Sutter, R.W. & Aylward, R.B. & Watkins, M. & Gary Jr., H.E. & Alexander, J. & Jafari, H. & Cochi, S.L., 2008. "The risks, costs, and benefits of possible future global policies for managing polioviruses," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(7), pages 1322-1330.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
    6. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    7. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James Alexander & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. T, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 855-876, August.
    8. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Nalinee Sangrujee & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1507-1531, December.
    9. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James P. Alexander & Linda Venczel & Denis, 2006. "Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1571-1580, December.
    10. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
    11. P. E. M. Fine & S. Ritchie, 2006. "Perspective: Determinants of the Severity of Poliovirus Outbreaks in the Post Eradication Era," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1533-1540, December.
    12. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Victor M. Cáceres & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1471-1505, December.
    13. Scott Barrett, 0. "Stop! The Polio Vaccination Cessation Game," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 361-385.
    14. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
    15. Esther De Gourville & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Nalinee Sangrujee & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Global Surveillance and the Value of Information: The Case of the Global Polio Laboratory Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1557-1569, December.
    16. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    17. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch, 2006. "Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1541-1556, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski & James L. Goodson & Susan E. Reef & Robert T. Perry, 2016. "Synthesis of Evidence to Characterize National Measles and Rubella Exposure and Immunization Histories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1427-1458, July.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Stephen L. Cochi, 2016. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1288-1296, July.
    5. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2015. "Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 5-25, February.
    6. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    7. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 223-228, February.

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