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Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models

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  • Kimberly M. Thompson
  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
  • Mark A. Pallansch

Abstract

Appropriate response to polio outbreaks represents an important prerequisite for achieving and maintaining global polio eradication. We use an existing dynamic disease transmission model to evaluate the impact of different aspects of immunization campaigns in response to polio outbreaks occurring in previously polio‐free areas. This analysis yields several important insights about response strategies. We find that delay in response represents a crucial risk factor for occurrence of large outbreaks and we characterize the tradeoffs associated with delaying the initial response to achieve better population coverage. We also demonstrate that controlling most potential outbreaks will likely require at least three immunization rounds, although the impact of the optimal interval between rounds varies. Finally, long after oral poliovirus vaccine cessation the choice of target age groups during a response represents an important consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch, 2006. "Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1541-1556, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:6:p:1541-1556
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00843.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James P. Alexander & Linda Venczel & Denis, 2006. "Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1571-1580, December.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    3. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1175-1186, August.
    4. Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra & Abraham J. Arenas, 2021. "Nonlinear Dynamics of the Introduction of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant with Different Infectiousness," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    7. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
    8. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James Alexander & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. T, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 855-876, August.
    9. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, 2016. "Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine‐Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1487-1509, July.
    10. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Poliomyelitis and the Role of Risk Analysis in Global Infectious Disease Policy and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1419-1421, December.
    11. Esther De Gourville & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Nalinee Sangrujee & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Global Surveillance and the Value of Information: The Case of the Global Polio Laboratory Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1557-1569, December.
    12. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    13. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    14. Kimberly M. Thompson & Kasper H. Kisjes, 2016. "Modeling Measles Transmission in the North American Amish and Options for Outbreak Response," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1404-1417, July.
    15. Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri & Abrar Ahmad Chughtai & C. Raina MacIntyre, 2018. "A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 429-441, March.
    16. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.

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