IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/medema/v43y2023i7-8p850-862.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame

Author

Listed:
  • Kamran Badizadegan

    (Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA)

  • Dominika A. Kalkowska

    (Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA)

  • Kimberly M. Thompson

    (Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA)

Abstract

Background Polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) may provide a critical tool in the eradication endgame by stopping poliovirus infections in immunodeficient individuals who may not clear the virus without therapeutic intervention. Although prolonged/chronic poliovirus excreters are rare, they represent a source of poliovirus reintroduction into the general population. Prior studies that assumed the successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use estimated the potential upper bound of the incremental net benefits (INBs) of resource investments in research and development of PAVDs. However, delays in polio eradication, OPV cessation, and the development of PAVDs necessitate an updated economic analysis to reevaluate the costs and benefits of further investments in PAVDs. Methods Using a global integrated model of polio transmission, immunity, vaccine dynamics, risks, and economics, we explore the risks of reintroduction of polio transmission due to immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters and reevaluate the upper bound of the INBs of PAVDs. Results Under the current conditions, for which the use of OPV will likely continue for the foreseeable future, even with successful eradication of type 1 wild poliovirus by the end of 2023 and continued use of Sabin OPV for outbreak response, we estimate an upper bound INB of 60 million US$2019. With >100 million US$2019 already invested in PAVD development and with the introduction of novel OPVs that are less likely to revert to neurovirulence, our analysis suggests the expected INBs of PAVDs would not offset their costs. Conclusions While PAVDs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits drop with ongoing OPV use and poliovirus transmissions. However, stakeholders may pursue the development of PAVDs as a desired product regardless of their economic benefits. Highlights While polio antiviral drugs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits continue to drop with delays in polio eradication and the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccines. The incremental net benefits of investments in polio antiviral drug development and screening for immunodeficiency-related circulating polioviruses are small. Limited global resources are better spent on increasing global population immunity to polioviruses to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamran Badizadegan & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2023. "Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(7-8), pages 850-862, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:43:y:2023:i:7-8:p:850-862
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X231191127
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X231191127
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0272989X231191127?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James Alexander & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. T, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 855-876, August.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 393-406, February.
    4. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    5. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Expected Implications of Globally Coordinated Cessation of Serotype 3 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) Before Serotype 1 OPV," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 312-319, February.
    6. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Stephanie D. Kovacs & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Updated Characterization of Post‐OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 320-328, February.
    7. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    8. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 349-363, February.
    9. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
    10. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    11. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Victor M. Cáceres & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1471-1505, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Derek T. Ehrhardt & Noha H. Farag & Stephen C. Hadler & Lee M. Hampton & Maureen Martinez & Steve G.F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thomp, 2018. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1701-1717, August.
    6. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    7. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    8. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    9. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 349-363, February.
    10. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    11. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    12. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
    13. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
    14. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 402-413, February.
    15. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Stephanie D. Kovacs & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Updated Characterization of Post‐OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 320-328, February.
    16. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2015. "Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 5-25, February.
    17. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kamran Badizadegan, 2021. "A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID‐19 in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 376-386, February.
    18. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 223-228, February.
    19. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Amanda Wilkinson & Ananda S. Bandyopadhyay & Jennifer L. Konopka‐Anstadt & Cara C. Burns & M. Steven Oberste & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kamran Badizadegan & , 2021. "Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019–2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 329-348, February.
    20. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 393-406, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:43:y:2023:i:7-8:p:850-862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.