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The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies

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  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
  • Nalinee Sangrujee
  • Kimberly M. Thompson

Abstract

Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low‐, middle‐, and high‐income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.

Suggested Citation

  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Nalinee Sangrujee & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1507-1531, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:6:p:1507-1531
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00842.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Victor M. Cáceres & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1471-1505, December.
    3. Esther De Gourville & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Nalinee Sangrujee & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Global Surveillance and the Value of Information: The Case of the Global Polio Laboratory Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1557-1569, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, 2006. "Retrospective Cost‐Effectiveness Analyses for Polio Vaccination in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1423-1440, December.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 349-363, February.
    3. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Poliomyelitis and the Role of Risk Analysis in Global Infectious Disease Policy and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1419-1421, December.
    5. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.

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