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Campylobacter QMRA: A Bayesian Estimation of Prevalence and Concentration in Retail Foods Under Clustering and Heavy Censoring

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  • Antti Mikkelä
  • Jukka Ranta
  • Manuel González
  • Marjaana Hakkinen
  • Pirkko Tuominen

Abstract

A Bayesian statistical temporal‐prevalence‐concentration model (TPCM) was built to assess the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic campylobacter species in batches of fresh chicken and turkey meat at retail. The data set was collected from Finnish grocery stores in all the seasons of the year. Observations at low concentration levels are often censored due to the limit of determination of the microbiological methods. This model utilized the potential of Bayesian methods to borrow strength from related samples in order to perform under heavy censoring. In this extreme case the majority of the observed batch‐specific concentrations was below the limit of determination. The hierarchical structure was included in the model in order to take into account the within‐batch and between‐batch variability, which may have a significant impact on the sample outcome depending on the sampling plan. Temporal changes in the prevalence of campylobacter were modeled using a Markovian time series. The proposed model is adaptable for other pathogens if the same type of data set is available. The computation of the model was performed using OpenBUGS software.

Suggested Citation

  • Antti Mikkelä & Jukka Ranta & Manuel González & Marjaana Hakkinen & Pirkko Tuominen, 2016. "Campylobacter QMRA: A Bayesian Estimation of Prevalence and Concentration in Retail Foods Under Clustering and Heavy Censoring," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2065-2080, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:11:p:2065-2080
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maarten J. Nauta & Wilma F. Jacobs‐Reitsma & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 845-861, August.
    2. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    3. Natalie Commeau & Marie Cornu & Isabelle Albert & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Eric Parent, 2012. "Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Assess Between‐ and Within‐Batch Variability of Pathogen Contamination in Food," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 395-415, March.
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