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Fuzzy Risks and an Updating Algorithm with New Observations

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  • Chongfu Huang
  • Da Ruan

Abstract

Concerning the essence of risk, we suggest a new definition of risk: a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. In many cases, risks are rather fuzzy for our perception because of the shortage of knowledge or information about the systems that determine the adverse incidents. We introduce a concept of fuzzy risk based on the new risk definition and fuzzy sets. And, in this article, we suggest a fuzzy average algorithm to update a fuzzy risk that stores all information from the original data. To illustrate the algorithm, we update a soft risk map of flood where the fuzzy risks are calculated using the interior‐outer‐set model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chongfu Huang & Da Ruan, 2008. "Fuzzy Risks and an Updating Algorithm with New Observations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 681-694, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:3:p:681-694
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01057.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marzio Marseguerra & Enrico Zio & Massimo Librizzi, 2007. "Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy “CREAM”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 137-154, February.
    2. Suresh, K. R. & Mujumdar, P. P., 2004. "A fuzzy risk approach for performance evaluation of an irrigation reservoir system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 159-177, October.
    3. Hill, Roger M., 1997. "Applying Bayesian methodology with a uniform prior to the single period inventory model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 555-562, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiayang Zhang & Yangbo Chen, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Induced by Typhoon Rainstorms in Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Lina Han & Qing Ma & Feng Zhang & Yichen Zhang & Jiquan Zhang & Yongbin Bao & Jing Zhao, 2019. "Risk Assessment of An Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide Disaster Chain by Bayesian Network and Newmark Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.

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