IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v112y2008i1p391-402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian approach to determine the value of information in the newsboy problem

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chih-Ming

Abstract

The potential benefits of demand forecasting in a newsboy problem are to decrease the risk of overstocking or shortage, but forecasting is usually not free. In this paper, a model to help the decision-maker in a newsboy problem to assess the value of information is presented. First, two cases on available demand information are considered to develop an upper bound of the cost that the decision-maker would spend on forecasting. Then, a Bayesian approach to forecasting is proposed and EVAI, the expected value of additional information, is computed to help the decision-maker in deciding whether to use the extra information. Finally, the relationship between the EVAI and model parameters is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chih-Ming, 2008. "A Bayesian approach to determine the value of information in the newsboy problem," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 391-402, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:112:y:2008:i:1:p:391-402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925-5273(07)00175-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khouja, Moutaz, 1999. "The single-period (news-vendor) problem: literature review and suggestions for future research," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 537-553, October.
    2. George R. Murray, Jr. & Edward A. Silver, 1966. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Style Goods Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(11), pages 785-797, July.
    3. Alfares, Hesham K. & Elmorra, Hassan H., 2005. "The distribution-free newsboy problem: Extensions to the shortage penalty case," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 465-477, January.
    4. Wallace B. Crowston & Warren H. Hausman & William R. Kampe, II, 1973. "Multistage Production for Stochastic Seasonal Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(8), pages 924-935, April.
    5. Mostard, Julien & de Koster, Rene & Teunter, Ruud, 2005. "The distribution-free newsboy problem with resalable returns," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 329-342, September.
    6. Gabriel R. Bitran & Elizabeth A. Haas & Hirofumi Matsuo, 1986. "Production Planning of Style Goods with High Setup Costs and Forecast Revisions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 226-236, April.
    7. Hill, Roger M., 1997. "Applying Bayesian methodology with a uniform prior to the single period inventory model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 555-562, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, Roberto & Prestwich, Steven & Tarim, S. Armagan & Hnich, Brahim, 2014. "Confidence-based optimisation for the newsvendor problem under binomial, Poisson and exponential demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(3), pages 674-684.
    2. Xu, Xun & Jackson, Jonathan E., 2019. "Examining customer channel selection intention in the omni-channel retail environment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 434-445.
    3. Celik, Nurcin & Son, Young-Jun, 2011. "State estimation of a shop floor using improved resampling rules for particle filtering," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 224-237, November.
    4. Langenberg, Kerstin U. & Seifert, Ralf W. & Tancrez, Jean-Sébastien, 2012. "Aligning supply chain portfolios with product portfolios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 500-513.
    5. Gel, Esma S. & Salman, F. Sibel, 2022. "Dynamic ordering decisions with approximate learning of supply yield uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arpita Roy & Shib Sankar Sana & Kripasindhu Chaudhuri, 2018. "Optimal Pricing of competing retailers under uncertain demand-a two layer supply chain model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 481-500, January.
    2. Raza, Syed Asif & Rathinam, Sivakumar, 2017. "A risk tolerance analysis for a joint price differentiation and inventory decisions problem with demand leakage effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 129-145.
    3. K Kogan & V Portougal, 2006. "Multi-period aggregate production planning in a news-vendor framework," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(4), pages 423-433, April.
    4. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2012. "Evaluating alternative estimators for optimal order quantities in the newsvendor model with skewed demand," MPRA Paper 36205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Khouja, Moutaz, 1999. "The single-period (news-vendor) problem: literature review and suggestions for future research," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 537-553, October.
    6. Kogan, Konstantin & Herbon, Avi, 2008. "Production under periodic demand update prior to a single selling season: A decomposition approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 133-146, January.
    7. Brito, Anderson J. & de Almeida, Adiel T., 2012. "Modeling a multi-attribute utility newsvendor with partial backlogging," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 820-830.
    8. Joseph M. Milner & Meir J. Rosenblatt, 2002. "Flexible supply contracts for short life‐cycle goods: The buyer's perspective," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 25-45, February.
    9. Boutselis, Petros & McNaught, Ken, 2014. "Finite-Time Horizon Logistics Decision Making Problems: Consideration of a Wider Set of Factors," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Blecker, Thorsten & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Innovative Methods in Logistics and Supply Chain Management: Current Issues and Emerging Practices. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conferenc, volume 19, pages 249-274, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    10. Karen L. Donohue, 2000. "Efficient Supply Contracts for Fashion Goods with Forecast Updating and Two Production Modes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(11), pages 1397-1411, November.
    11. Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Maqbool Dada, 2002. "Dynamic pricing and inventory control with learning," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 303-325, April.
    12. Asif Muzaffar & Shiming Deng & Muhammad Nasir Malik, 2020. "Contracting mechanism with imperfect information in a two-level supply chain," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 349-368, March.
    13. Lee, Chih-Ming & Hsu, Shu-Lu, 2011. "The effect of advertising on the distribution-free newsboy problem," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 217-224, January.
    14. Mostard, Julien & Teunter, Ruud & de Koster, René, 2011. "Forecasting demand for single-period products: A case study in the apparel industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 139-147, May.
    15. Mofidi, Seyed Shahab & Pazour, Jennifer A. & Roy, Debjit, 2018. "Proactive vs. reactive order-fulfillment resource allocation for sea-based logistics," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 66-84.
    16. Mostard, Julien & Teunter, Ruud, 2006. "The newsboy problem with resalable returns: A single period model and case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 81-96, February.
    17. Mehran Ullah & Irfanullah Khan & Biswajit Sarkar, 2019. "Dynamic Pricing in a Multi-Period Newsvendor Under Stochastic Price-Dependent Demand," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-15, June.
    18. U Benzion & Y Cohen & T Shavit, 2010. "The newsvendor problem with unknown distribution," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1022-1031, June.
    19. Eric W. K. See-To & Eric W. T. Ngai, 2018. "Customer reviews for demand distribution and sales nowcasting: a big data approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 415-431, November.
    20. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2012. "Validity and precision of estimates in the classical newsvendor model with exponential and rayleigh demand," MPRA Paper 36460, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:112:y:2008:i:1:p:391-402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.