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Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment

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  • Thomas E. McKone

Abstract

This paper presents a general model for exposure to homegrown foods that is used with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the relative contributions of variability (Type A uncertainty) and true uncertainty (Type B uncertainty) to the overall variance in prediction of the dose‐to‐concentration ratio. Although classification of exposure inputs as uncertain or variable is somewhat subjective, food consumption rates and exposure duration are judged to have a predicted variance that is dominated by variability among individuals by age, income, culture, and geographical region. Whereas, biotransfer factors and partition factors are inputs that, to a large extent, involve uncertainty. Using ingestion of fruits, vegetables, grains, dairy products, and meat and soils assumed to be contaminated by hexachlorbenzene (HCB) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as cases studies, a Monte Carlo analysis is used to explore the relative contribution of uncertainty and variability to overall variance in the estimated distribution of potential dose within the population that consumes homegrown foods. It is found that, when soil concentrations are specified, variances in ratios of dose‐to‐concentration for HCB are equally attributable to uncertainty and variability, whereas for BaP, variance in these ratios is dominated by true uncertainty.

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  • Thomas E. McKone, 1994. "Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 449-463, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:4:p:449-463
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00263.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1988. "An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 71-90, March.
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    1. Maged M. Hamed & Philip B. Bedient, 1997. "On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 97-105, February.
    2. H. Christopher Frey & David E. Burmaster, 1999. "Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood‐Based Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 109-130, February.
    3. Katherine E. Von Stackelberg & Dmitriy Burmistrov & Donna J. Vorhees & Todd Bridges & Igor Linkov, 2002. "Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 499-512, June.
    4. J. C. Helton & F. J. Davis, 2002. "Illustration of Sampling‐Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 591-622, June.
    5. T. E. McKone & J. I. Daniels & M. Goldman, 1996. "Uncertainties in the Link Between Global Climate Change and Predicted Health Risks from Pollution: Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) Case Study Using a Fugacity Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 377-393, June.
    6. Frédéric Dor & Pascal Empereur‐Bissonnet & Denis Zmirou & Vincent Nedellec & Jean‐Marie Haguenoer & Frans Jongeneelen & Alain Person & William Dab & Colin Ferguson, 2003. "Validation of Multimedia Models Assessing Exposure to PAHs—The SOLEX Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5), pages 1047-1057, October.
    7. Lisa M. Funk & Richard Sedman & Jill A. J. Beals & Robert Fountain, 1998. "Quantifying the Distribution of Inhalation Exposure in Human Populations: 2. Distributions of Time Spent by Adults, Adolescents, and Children at Home, at Work, and at School," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 47-56, February.
    8. Lee, Chang-Ju & Lee, Kun Jai, 2006. "Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(5), pages 515-532.
    9. Paul S. Price & Steave H. Su & Jeff R. Harrington & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Uncertainty and Variation in Indirect Exposure Assessments: An Analysis of Exposure to Tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐Dioxin from a Beef Consumption Pathway," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 263-277, April.

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