IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/navres/v50y2003i2p167-183.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated random demand

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah M. Ryan

Abstract

The combination of uncertain demand and lead times for installing capacity creates the risk of shortage during the lead time, which may have serious consequences for a service provider. This paper analyzes a model of capacity expansion with autocorrelated random demand and a fixed lead time for adding capacity. To provide a specified level of service, a discrete time expansion timing policy uses a forecast error‐adjusted minimum threshold level of excess capacity position to trigger an expansion. Under this timing policy, the expansion cost can be minimized by solving a deterministic dynamic program. We study the effects of demand characteristics and the lead time length on the capacity threshold. Autocorrelation acts similarly to randomness in hastening expansions but has a smaller impact, especially when lead times are short. However, the failure either to recognize autocorrelation or to accurately estimate its extent can cause substantial policy errors. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah M. Ryan, 2003. "Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated random demand," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 167-183, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:50:y:2003:i:2:p:167-183
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.10055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.10055
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/nav.10055?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan, Sarah M., 1998. "Forecast frequency in rolling horizon hedging heuristics for capacity expansion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 550-558, September.
    2. Porteus, Evan L. & Angelus, Alexandar & Wood, Samuel C., 2000. "Optimal Sizing and Timing of Modular Capacity Expansions," Research Papers 1479r2, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Richard J. Giglio, 1970. "Stochastic Capacity Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 174-184, November.
    4. Sol M. Rocklin & Arik Kashper & George C. Varvaloucas, 1984. "Capacity Expansion/Contraction of a Facility with Demand Augmentation Dynamics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 133-147, February.
    5. James C. Bean & Julia L. Higle & Robert L. Smith, 1992. "Capacity Expansion Under Stochastic Demands," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3-supplem), pages 210-216, June.
    6. T L Urban, 2000. "Reorder level determination with serially-correlated demand," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(6), pages 762-768, June.
    7. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    8. Stephen Nickell, 1977. "Uncertainty and Lags in the Investment Decisions of Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(2), pages 249-263.
    9. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "Addendum to "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process"," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 174-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Van-Anh Truong & Robin O. Roundy, 2011. "Multidimensional Approximation Algorithms for Capacity-Expansion Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 313-327, April.
    2. Chien, Chen-Fu & Wu, Cheng-Hung & Chiang, Yu-Shian, 2012. "Coordinated capacity migration and expansion planning for semiconductor manufacturing under demand uncertainties," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 860-869.
    3. Alexandar Angelus & Evan L. Porteus, 2008. "An Asset Assembly Problem," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 665-680, June.
    4. Woonghee Tim Huh & Robin O. Roundy & Metin Çakanyildirim, 2006. "A general strategic capacity planning model under demand uncertainty," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 137-150, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chandra, Charu & Grabis, Janis, 2005. "Application of multi-steps forecasting for restraining the bullwhip effect and improving inventory performance under autoregressive demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 337-350, October.
    2. Trapero, Juan R. & Cardós, Manuel & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2019. "Empirical safety stock estimation based on kernel and GARCH models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 199-211.
    3. Poretus, Evan L. & Angelus, Alexander, 2000. "Simultaneous Production and Capacity Management under Stochastic Demand for Perishable Goods," Research Papers 1419r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    4. Urban, Timothy L., 2005. "A periodic-review model with serially-correlated, inventory-level-dependent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 287-295, March.
    5. Sarah M. Ryan, 2004. "Capacity Expansion for Random Exponential Demand Growth with Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(6), pages 740-748, June.
    6. Wang, Zhaodong & Wang, Xin & Ouyang, Yanfeng, 2015. "Bounded growth of the bullwhip effect under a class of nonlinear ordering policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 72-82.
    7. Ma, Yungao & Wang, Nengmin & He, Zhengwen & Lu, Jizhou & Liang, Huigang, 2015. "Analysis of the bullwhip effect in two parallel supply chains with interacting price-sensitive demands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 815-825.
    8. Nan Yang & Renyu Zhang, 2022. "Dynamic pricing and inventory management in the presence of online reviews," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(8), pages 3180-3197, August.
    9. Yiwei Chen & Vivek F. Farias, 2013. "Simple Policies for Dynamic Pricing with Imperfect Forecasts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 612-624, June.
    10. Hau Mike Ma & Jiazhen Huo & Yongrui Duan, 2024. "Effects of time aggregation, product aggregation, and seasonality in measuring bullwhip ratio," Papers 2412.00716, arXiv.org.
    11. Qin, Ruwen & Nembhard, David A., 2012. "Demand modeling of stochastic product diffusion over the life cycle," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 201-210.
    12. Mirko Kremer & Enno Siemsen & Douglas J. Thomas, 2016. "The Sum and Its Parts: Judgmental Hierarchical Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2745-2764, September.
    13. Trapero, Juan R. & Cardós, Manuel & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2019. "Quantile forecast optimal combination to enhance safety stock estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 239-250.
    14. Xiang, Mengyuan & Rossi, Roberto & Martin-Barragan, Belen & Tarim, S. Armagan, 2023. "A mathematical programming-based solution method for the nonstationary inventory problem under correlated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 515-524.
    15. Ouyang, Yanfeng & Daganzo, Carlos, 2008. "Robust tests for the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 340-353, February.
    16. Boxiao Chen, 2021. "Data‐Driven Inventory Control with Shifting Demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(5), pages 1365-1385, May.
    17. Babai, M.Z. & Ali, M.M. & Boylan, J.E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2013. "Forecasting and inventory performance in a two-stage supply chain with ARIMA(0,1,1) demand: Theory and empirical analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 463-471.
    18. Rachel Lacroix & Anna Timonina-Farkas & Ralf W. Seifert, 2023. "Utilizing additive manufacturing and mass customization under capacity constraints," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 281-301, January.
    19. Robert L. Bray & Haim Mendelson, 2012. "Information Transmission and the Bullwhip Effect: An Empirical Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 860-875, May.
    20. Li Chen & Wei Luo & Kevin Shang, 2017. "Measuring the Bullwhip Effect: Discrepancy and Alignment Between Information and Material Flows," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 36-51, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:50:y:2003:i:2:p:167-183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6750 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.