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Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains

Author

Listed:
  • M M Ali

    (Buckinghamshire New University)

  • J E Boylan

    (Buckinghamshire New University)

Abstract

Many companies are adopting strategies that enable Demand Information Sharing (DIS) between the supply chain links. Recently, a steady stream of research has identified mathematical relationships between demands and orders at any link in the supply chain. Based on these relationships and strict model assumptions, it has been suggested that the upstream member can infer the demand at the downstream member from their orders. If this is so, DIS will be of no value. In this paper, we argue that real-world modelling requires less restrictive assumptions. We present Feasibility Principles to show that it is not possible for an upstream member to accurately infer consumer demand under more realistic model assumptions. Thus, we conclude that DIS has value in supply chains. We then move our focus to the supply chain model assumptions in the papers arguing that there is value in sharing demand information. Using a simulation experiment, we show that the value of sharing demand information in terms of inventory reductions will increase under more realistic supply chain model assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • M M Ali & J E Boylan, 2011. "Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 474-482, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1057_jors.2010.82
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Syntetos, A.A. & Teunter, R.H., 2014. "On the calculation of safety stocks," Research Report 14003-OPERA, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Prak, Dennis & Teunter, Ruud, 2019. "A general method for addressing forecasting uncertainty in inventory models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 224-238.
    4. Ali, Mohammad M. & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2017. "Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 984-994.
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:14003-opera is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pastore, Erica & Alfieri, Arianna & Zotteri, Giulio & Boylan, John E., 2020. "The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 94-107.
    7. Prak, Dennis & Teunter, Ruud & Syntetos, Aris, 2017. "On the calculation of safety stocks when demand is forecasted," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 454-461.
    8. Tliche, Y. & Taghipour, A. & Canel-Depitre, B., 2019. "Downstream Demand Inference in decentralized supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 65-77.
    9. Ali, Mohammad M. & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2012. "Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 830-841.
    10. Babai, M.Z. & Boylan, J.E. & Syntetos, A.A. & Ali, M.M., 2016. "Reduction of the value of information sharing as demand becomes strongly auto-correlated," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 130-135.
    11. Youssef Tliche & Atour Taghipour & Jomana Mahfod-Leroux & Mohammadali Vosooghidizaji, 2023. "Collaborative Bullwhip Effect-Oriented Bi-Objective Optimization for Inference-Based Weighted Moving Average Forecasting in Decentralized Supply Chain," International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management (IJISSCM), IGI Global, vol. 16(1), pages 1-37, January.
    12. Babai, M.Z. & Ali, M.M. & Boylan, J.E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2013. "Forecasting and inventory performance in a two-stage supply chain with ARIMA(0,1,1) demand: Theory and empirical analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 463-471.
    13. Cannella, Salvatore & Framinan, Jose M. & Bruccoleri, Manfredi & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana Paula & Relvas, Susana, 2015. "The effect of Inventory Record Inaccuracy in Information Exchange Supply Chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 120-129.
    14. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.

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