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Fiscal stimulus packages to COVID‐19: The role of informality

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  • Ceyhun Elgin
  • Colin C. Williams
  • Gamze Oz‐Yalaman
  • Abdullan Yalaman

Abstract

In this paper, we use a novel cross‐country dataset to investigate the relationship between the prevalence of the shadow economy and fiscal policy responses to the economic crisis induced by the pandemic. The finding is that countries with a relatively larger shadow economy before the pandemic have adopted a smaller fiscal policy package. The results are robust to different econometric specifications, including an instrumental variable estimation. This reinforces the wider literature that countries (especially those with larger shadow economies) generally follow a procyclical policy as opposed to the optimal and countercyclical one.

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  • Ceyhun Elgin & Colin C. Williams & Gamze Oz‐Yalaman & Abdullan Yalaman, 2022. "Fiscal stimulus packages to COVID‐19: The role of informality," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 861-879, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:861-879
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3628
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    1. Mangirdas Morkunas, 2022. "Measuring the Level of the Youth Informal Economy in Lithuania in 2004–2020," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Capasso, Salvatore & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yu, Shu, 2022. "From Financial Development to Informality: A Causal Link," CEPR Discussion Papers 17565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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