IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rie/riecdt/70.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informalidad, ciclos económicos y política fiscal: una exploración de los nexos

Author

Listed:
  • García-Callejas, Danny
  • Granda-Carvajal, Catalina

Abstract

Este trabajo tiene como objetivos ofrecer una visión panorámica acerca de la economía informal, sus determinantes y principales características en el caso colombiano; y, también, explorar las consecuencias de este fenómeno a nivel macroeconómico, enfatizando en los posibles efectos de la informalidad sobre los rasgos específicos de los ciclos económicos en los países emergentes, particularmente en el comportamiento de la política fiscal en Colombia. Para ello, se efectúa una revisión de la literatura pertinente buscando establecer conexiones entre estos aspectos. Se concluye que la debilidad institucional del país no solo incide en una proporción considerable de la economía informal con respecto al PIB, sino que refuerza el impacto de esta sobre la postura procíclica (o desestabilizadora) de la política fiscal. En este sentido, se requiere que el gobierno ajuste sus instrumentos de política en torno a una senda estabilizadora a la par que promueva la formalización laboral y empresarial.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Callejas, Danny & Granda-Carvajal, Catalina, 2020. "Informalidad, ciclos económicos y política fiscal: una exploración de los nexos," Working papers 70, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.redinvestigadores.org/bitstream/handle/Riec/90/Garc%c3%ada%26GrandaWPRed.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & McMillan, John & Woodruff, Christopher, 2000. "Why do firms hide? Bribes and unofficial activity after communism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 495-520, June.
    2. Schneider Friedrich & Hametner Bettina, 2014. "The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effects on Economic Growth," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 293-325, April.
    3. Elgin, Ceyhun & Uras, Burak R., 2013. "Public debt, sovereign default risk and shadow economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 628-640.
    4. Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms," NBER Working Papers 27360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Natalia Salazar Ferro & Diego Prada H., 2004. "El balance estructural del gobierno central en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 2001. "Optimal tax and debt policy with endogenously imperfect creditworthiness," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 367-395.
    8. Clark Granger & Yurany Hernández & Jorge Ramos & Jorge Toro & Héctor Zárate, 2018. "La postura fiscal en Colombia a partir de los ajustes a las tarifas impositivas," Borradores de Economia 1038, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2007. "Inequality and informality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 159-179, February.
    11. Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2008. "What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Colombo, Emilio & Menna, Lorenzo & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2019. "Informality and the labor market effects of financial crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," Borradores de Economia 434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 573-586.
    15. Luis Armando Galvis A., 2012. "Informalidad laboral en las áreas urbanas de Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    16. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    17. Norman V. Loayza & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33540, The World Bank Group.
    18. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    20. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    21. repec:bde:joures:v:01:y:2013:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 275-363.
    23. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    24. Juan Carlos Berganza, 2013. "Reglas fiscales en América Latina," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue JAN, pages 101-113, Enero.
    25. Leonardo Gasparini & Francisco Haimovich & Sergio Olivieri, 2009. "Labor informality bias of a poverty-alleviation program in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 12, pages 181-205, November.
    26. Titan Alon & Minki Kim & David Lagakos, 2020. "How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-350, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    27. Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
    28. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal policy throughout the business cycle: the Colombian experience," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(55), pages 12-39, December.
    29. World Bank, 2010. "Informality in Colombia : Implications for Worker Welfare and Firm Productivity," World Bank Publications - Reports 2889, The World Bank Group.
    30. Yoke-Kee Eng & Chin-Yoong Wong, 2008. "A short note on business cycles of underground output: are they asymmetric?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(58), pages 1-10.
    31. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    32. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufmann & John McMillan & Christopher Woodruff, 2007. "Why Do Firms Hide? Bribes and Unofficial Activity after Communism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Erik Berglöf & Gérard Roland (ed.), The Economics of Transition, chapter 10, pages 335-359, Palgrave Macmillan.
    33. Gisele Ferreira-Tiryaki, 2008. "The informal economy and business cycles," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 11, pages 91-117, May.
    34. Deniz Çiçek & Ceyhun Elgin, 2011. "Cyclicality of fiscal policy and the shadow economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 725-737, December.
    35. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2018. "Business cycles, informal economy, and interest rates in emerging countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-116.
    36. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894, January.
    37. Loayza,Norman V. & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries," Research and Policy Briefs 147291, The World Bank.
    38. Bernal Raquel, 2009. "The Informal Labor Market in Colombia: identification and characterization," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, September.
    39. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    40. Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1998. "Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 387-392, May.
    41. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    42. Gutierrez,Eva M. & Karmali,Nadeem M. & Sourrouille,Diego M., 2018. "Bank Credit Allocation in Latin America and the Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8571, The World Bank.
    43. Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2014. "Macroeconomic volatility: The role of the informal economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 454-469.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catalina Granda-Carvajal & Danny García-Callejas, 2023. "Informality, tax policy and the business cycle: exploring the links," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 114-166, February.
    2. Gaetano Lisi, 2021. "Can the AD-AS Model Explain the Presence and Persistence of the Underground Economy? Evidence from Italy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, November.
    3. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Dinh Su Thanh, 2020. "Economic Fluctuations And The Shadow Economy: A Global Study," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    5. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Elgin, Ceyhun & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yu, Shu, 2021. "Understanding Informality," CEPR Discussion Papers 16497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Florencia Verónica Pedroni & Anahí Briozzo & Gabriela Pesce, 2019. "¿Por qué no declarar todo? Determinantes de la subfacturación empresarial en la Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4186, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    8. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    9. Beck, T.H.L. & Hoseini, M., 2014. "Informality and Access to Finance : Evidence from India," Other publications TiSEM 00e890f4-bd1a-46ba-9064-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Semih Tumen, 2017. "Entrepreneurship in the shadows," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(2), pages 239-269, April.
    11. Florencia Verónica Pedroni & Anahí Briozzo & Gabriela Pesce, 2022. "Determinants of unreported income in Latin American companies: a business perspective," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(1), pages 58-83.
    12. Capasso, Salvatore & Jappelli, Tullio, 2013. "Financial development and the underground economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 167-178.
    13. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    14. Kamila Fialová, 2010. "Labor Institutions and their Impact on Shadow Economies in Europe," Working Papers IES 2010/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2010.
    15. Mazhar, Ummad & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2017. "Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 89-103.
    16. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    17. Cong Minh Huynh & Tan Loi Nguyen, 2020. "Fiscal policy and shadow economy in Asian developing countries: does corruption matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1745-1761, October.
    18. Thorsten Beck & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 763-817, April.
    19. Pedroni, Florencia Verónica & Briozzo, Anahí & Pesce, Gabriela, 2022. "Firm-level determinants of business tax evasion in emerging economies: the case of Argentina [Determinantes microeconómicos de la evasión tributaria empresarial en economías emergentes: el caso de ," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 34(1), pages 83-117, December.
    20. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economía informal; ciclos económicos; política fiscal; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CAIE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redcoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.