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The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment

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  • Akihiro Omura
  • Neda Todorova

Abstract

Focusing on energy commodities, industrial metals, and gold, this paper examines the degree to which commodity futures returns depend on news sentiment under various market conditions, and the structure of that dependence. We observe an asymmetric market reaction to positive and negative news sentiment, which changes in periods of financial turmoil. The quantile regression analysis shows that news sentiment's influence on the futures returns follows an upward trend at higher percentiles. This structure flattens for positive news during the global financial crisis, while the slope for the negative component steepens in backwardation periods.

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  • Akihiro Omura & Neda Todorova, 2019. "The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 818-837, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:7:p:818-837
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22010
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