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News sentiment and jumps in energy spot and futures markets

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  • Maslyuk-Escobedo, Svetlana
  • Rotaru, Kristian
  • Dokumentov, Alexander

Abstract

How often do price discontinuities occur on spot and futures energy markets? What are their core characteristics in terms of incidence, size, and direction? Are price discontinuities in energy commodities related to large swings in market sentiment? Our study answers these questions by investigating the jump incidence of daily energy spot and nearest month futures returns for crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, heating oil and propane using formal nonparametric jump detection procedure for the period January 2003 to May 2013. This study proposes a proxy for aggregate and individual energy market sentiment reflecting the dynamics of news associated with the energy sector and a variety of distinct energy markets. Our analysis demonstrates that the greatest frequency of jumps occurred in spot markets as well as in crude oil and natural gas sentiment indices. The study identifies several types of co-jumps: between spot and futures pairs of energy commodities; across energy commodities; and between energy markets and relevant sentiment indices. Regarding the latter, the study discovers a statistically and practically significant dependency of jumps in corresponding energy commodity prices from the crude oil and aggregate sentiment indices introduced in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Maslyuk-Escobedo, Svetlana & Rotaru, Kristian & Dokumentov, Alexander, 2017. "News sentiment and jumps in energy spot and futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-210.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:186-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.07.001
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    2. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    3. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    5. He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
    6. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Yeh, Jin-Huei & Yun, Mu-Shu, 2023. "Assessing jump and cojumps in financial asset returns with applications in futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Akihiro Omura & Neda Todorova, 2019. "The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 818-837, July.
    9. Jawadi, Fredj & Bourghelle, David & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Sentiment and energy price volatility: A nonlinear high frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    12. Zhifang He & Fangzhao Zhou, 2018. "Time-varying and asymmetric effects of the oil-specific demand shock on investor sentiment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    13. Niu, Zibo & Liu, Yuanyuan & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The role of coronavirus news in the volatility forecasting of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    15. Elie Bouri, 2019. "The Effect of Jumps in the Crude Oil Market on the Sovereign Risks of Major Oil Exporters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jumps; Energy prices; Sentiment; Sentiment index; Nonparametric tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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