IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v27y2022i1p99-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Addiction to inflation or to fiscal deficits? The Chilean experience of 1970s

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Caputo

Abstract

Latin America is a region with very high income inequality and low social mobility. It has experienced several stagnation episodes and was plagued, from the mid‐1970s to the early 2000s, by hyperinflation. This phenomenon took place at different moments in time and with varying intensity. Using a novel data set for Chile, we identify the main drivers of fiscal reforms and seigniorage shocks that were crucial for inflation dynamics. We conclude that inflation, after the military coup that deposed Allende's socialist government, was used to finance defence spending non‐explicitly considered in the official figures. We interpret these fiscal expenditures as seigniorage shocks. Hence, the Chilean economy was addicted to fiscal deficits for most of the 1970s. Addiction to inflation, in the form of destabilizing inflation expectations that evolved independently of the level of seignorage, was not relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Caputo, 2022. "Addiction to inflation or to fiscal deficits? The Chilean experience of 1970s," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 99-110, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:1:p:99-110
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2140
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, April.
    2. Vittorio Corbo & Stanley Fischer, "undated". "Lessons from the Chilean Stabilization and Recovery," Documentos de Trabajo 158, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    3. Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979. "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1985. "Stabilization with Liberalization: An Evaluation of Ten Years of Chile's Experiment with Free-Market Policies, 1973-1983," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 223-254, January.
    5. Scheetz, Thomas, 1987. "Public sector expenditures and financial crisis in Chile," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1053-1075, August.
    6. Phylaktis, Kate & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 32-37, February.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2019. "On Latin American Populism, and Its Echoes around the World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 76-99, Fall.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. José De Gregorio, 1991. "Indexación versus Credibilidad en un Programa de Estabilización: La Experiencia Chilena a Mediados de los 70," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 28(83), pages 189-199.
    10. Sebastian Edwards & Gerardo Esquivel & Graciela Márquez, 2007. "The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa04-1, January.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 2019. "On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World," NBER Working Papers 26333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sebastian Edwards & Gerardo Esquivel & Graciela Márquez, 2007. "Introduction to "The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises"," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
    2. Wysocki, Maciej & Wojcik, Cezary & Freytag, Andreas, 2024. "Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Dimitris Georgoutsos & Georgios Kouretas, 2004. "A Multivariate I(2) cointegration analysis of German hyperinflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 29-41.
    4. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    5. Georgiana-Virginia Bonea & Vlad I. Rosca, 2022. "Social policies around the minimum wage in Romania during the Covid- 19 crisis," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 1, pages 3-19.
    6. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    8. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Emmanuelle Auriol & Nicolas Bonneton & Mattias Polborn, 2023. "Shaking Up the System: When Populism Disciplines Elite Politicians," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_473, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    11. Hanushek, Eric A. & Woessmann, Ludger, 2011. "The Economics of International Differences in Educational Achievement," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 89-200, Elsevier.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 2009. "Latin America's Decline: A Long Historical View," NBER Working Papers 15171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Benczes, István & Szijártó, Norbert, 2024. "Államháztartási kiadások alakulása populista kormányok alatt Kelet-Közép-Európában [Public expenditure under populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1001-1031.
    14. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2020. "A panel data analysis of Latin American populism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 329-343, September.
    15. Stefanadis, Christodoulos, 2023. "Oligarchy, underutilized capacity, and government policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Ishak-Kasim, Syurkani & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2009. "Inflation expectations formation and financial stability in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 27763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Salter, Alexander W. & Savanti, Ignacio, 2022. "Can dollarization constrain a populist leader? The case of Rafael Correa in Ecuador," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 430-442.
    18. Galárraga, Omar & Harris, Jeffrey E., 2021. "Effect of an abrupt change in sexual and reproductive health policy on teen birth rates in Ecuador, 2008–2017," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    19. Bruno Martorano, 2018. "Taxation and Inequality in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Recent Experience of Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 256-273, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:1:p:99-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.