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Research Decisions In The Face Of Heterogeneity: What Can A New Study Tell Us?

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  • Nicky Welton
  • A. E. Ades

Abstract

Willan and Eckermann describe a method for dealing with heterogeneity in value of information (VOI) calculations for prioritising and designing new research. Their article raises three fundamental (inter‐related) issues for VOI methods: (1) how to make sense of the concept of uncertainty in a cost‐effectiveness analysis (CEA) model, (2) the interpretation of heterogeneity in CEA, and (3) the relationship between data from a new study and the CEA model when there is heterogeneity. We discuss these three issues using an illustrative example meta‐analysis of magnesium for myocardial infarction. Careful consideration of the relationship between existing (and future) evidence and the CEA model is required to provide practical VOI methods that can help research funders prioritise new research in the face of heterogeneity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicky Welton & A. E. Ades, 2012. "Research Decisions In The Face Of Heterogeneity: What Can A New Study Tell Us?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1196-1200, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:21:y:2012:i:10:p:1196-1200
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James C. Felli & Gordon B. Hazen, 1999. "A Bayesian approach to sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 263-268, May.
    2. N. J. Welton & A. E. Ades & D. M. Caldwell & T. J. Peters, 2008. "Research prioritization based on expected value of partial perfect information: a case‐study on interventions to increase uptake of breast cancer screening," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(4), pages 807-841, October.
    3. Fumie Yokota & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2004. "Value of Information Analysis in Environmental Health Risk Management Decisions: Past, Present, and Future," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 635-650, June.
    4. James C. Felli & Gordon B. Hazen, 1998. "Sensitivity Analysis and the Expected Value of Perfect Information," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 18(1), pages 95-109, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicky J. Welton & Marta O. Soares & Stephen Palmer & Anthony E. Ades & David Harrison & Manu Shankar-Hari & Kathy M. Rowan, 2015. "Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 35(5), pages 608-621, July.
    2. Nicky J. Welton & Jason J. Madan & Deborah M. Caldwell & Tim J. Peters & Anthony E. Ades, 2014. "Expected Value of Sample Information for Multi-Arm Cluster Randomized Trials with Binary Outcomes," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 34(3), pages 352-365, April.
    3. Hendrik Koffijberg & Claire Rothery & Kalipso Chalkidou & Janneke Grutters, 2018. "Value of Information Choices that Influence Estimates: A Systematic Review of Prevailing Considerations," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(7), pages 888-900, October.

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