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Determining the optimal combinations of mutually exclusive interventions: a response to Hutubessy and colleagues

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  • Douglas Coyle

Abstract

Hutubessy and colleagues have suggested a technique for decision‐makers to employ in determining the optimal combination of interventions. This technique requires the adoption of Monte Carlo simulation analysis to identify the probability that a certain program will be included in an optimal mix given the uncertainty around the program's expected costs and benefits. In this response, it will be demonstrated that this methodology can lead to potential inefficiencies arising through the dependence of such probabilities on decisions relating to other programs and the failure to consider the opportunity costs of obtaining increased health benefits. A simple alternative approach is suggested which avoids these problems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Douglas Coyle, 2003. "Determining the optimal combinations of mutually exclusive interventions: a response to Hutubessy and colleagues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 159-162, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:12:y:2003:i:2:p:159-162
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James C. Felli & Gordon B. Hazen, 1999. "A Bayesian approach to sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 263-268, May.
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    4. Aaron A. Stinnett & John Mullahy, 1998. "Net Health Benefits: A New Framework for the Analysis of Uncertainty in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Elisabeth Fenwick & Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher, 2001. "Representing uncertainty: the role of cost‐effectiveness acceptability curves," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(8), pages 779-787, December.
    6. K. Claxton & P. J. Neumannn & S. S. Araki & M. C. Weinstein, "undated". "Bayesian Value-of-Information Analysis: An Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer's Disease," Discussion Papers 00/39, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Bryan R. Luce & Karl Claxton, 1999. "Redefining the analytical approach to pharmacoeconomics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 187-189, May.
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    9. Raymond C.W. Hutubessy & Rob M.P.M. Baltussen & David B. Evans & Jan J. Barendregt & Christopher J.L. Murray, 2001. "Stochastic league tables: communicating cost‐effectiveness results to decision‐makers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 473-477, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Koffijberg & G. A. de Wit & T. L. Feenstra, 2012. "Communicating Uncertainty in Economic Evaluations," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(3), pages 477-487, May.

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