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Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth

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  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar

Abstract

Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable seasonal variation in GDP. If there is seasonal variation in factor inputs, then seasonal adjustment factors may be correlated with those inputs. This correlation can obscure statistically the importance of those inputs for GDP. This effect is apparent for the demographic composition of the labour force for Canada. Seasonal adjustment also changes the time‐series properties of GDP. Accounting for the seasonal pattern and trend change in demography suggests that the period of reduced volatility in GDP growth for Canada, the ‘Great Moderation,’ can be traced to the changing demographic structure of the labour force. Ajustements saisonniers, démographie et croissance du PIB. Les ajustements saisonniers éliminent la variation saisonnière prévisible dans l’évolution du PIB. S'il y a variation saisonnière dans les facteurs de production, alors il se peut que ces facteurs d'ajustement saisonnier soient co‐reliés à la saisonnalité des intrants. Cette corrélation peut statistiquement obscurcir l'importance de la contribution de ces intrants au PIB désaisonnalisé. Cet effet est apparent dans la composition démographique de la main d'œuvre au Canada. La désaisonnalisation change aussi les propriétés des séries chronologiques du PIB. Quand on tient compte du changement dans le pattern saisonnier et de la tendance dans la démographie, on voit que la période de volatilité réduite dans la croissance du PIB au Canada, la Grande Modération, peut être reliée au changement dans la structure démographique de la main d'œuvre.

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  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2013. "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:46:y:2013:i:3:p:811-835
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12040
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    1. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2019. "Demographics and the demand for currency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1375-1409, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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