IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ijag24/344418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Hamulczuk, Mariusz
  • Cherevyk, Denys
  • Makarchuk, Oksana
  • Kuts, Tetyana
  • Voliak, Lesia

Abstract

The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the strength and nature of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets. The empirical research is based on the theoretical foundations of spatial market integration and the spatial market equilibrium model. According to them, changes in the integration of Ukrainian and world wheat, corn, and barley markets are evaluated via fluctuations in trade flow volumes, changes in trade costs and price co-movement. To analyze trade implications, monthly trade flow volumes, trade shares, and trade concentration measures during the conflict were compared with expected values assuming no war. To evaluate the implications of the conflict for trade costs, the authors analyzed differences between Ukrainian and world grain prices. Relying on the weekly price series, the price co-movement was assessed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Granger instantaneous causality test. The results show that the strength of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets has deteriorated due to the conflict. It is confirmed by the decrease in the grain export volumes from Ukraine, the increase in price differences, and the lack of significant price transmission between Ukrainian and global grain markets since the war outbreak in February 2022. Moreover, the nature of the market integration has changed. One can observe a growing role of the European Union countries in the Ukrainian grain export share and changes in the Ukrainian grain export concentration. Such behaviour is in line with the theoretical foundation of the spatial market equilibrium model and theory of international integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamulczuk, Mariusz & Cherevyk, Denys & Makarchuk, Oksana & Kuts, Tetyana & Voliak, Lesia, 2023. "Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," International Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (IJAGST), SvedbergOpen, vol. 377(4), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijag24:344418
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.344418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/344418/files/Hamulczuk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.344418?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Rose & Zhenhua Chen & Dan Wei, 2023. "The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 645-665, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao Xu & Niu Niu & Dongmei Li & Chengjie Wang, 2024. "A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Jan Neugebauer & Marek Vokoun, 2024. "Economic and Political Dynamics of Globalization: A Review of Continuity and Change in Research Focus," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 13(1), pages 30-57, May.
    4. Federico Solari & Natalya Lysova & Giovanni Romagnoli & Roberto Montanari & Eleonora Bottani, 2024. "Insights from 20 Years (2004–2023) of Supply Chain Disruption Research: Trends and Future Directions Based on a Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Elena Bisinicu & Valeria Abaza & Laura Boicenco & Filimon Adrian & George-Emanuel Harcota & Oana Marin & Andra Oros & Elena Pantea & Alina Spinu & Florin Timofte & George Tiganov & Oana Vlas & Luminit, 2024. "Spatial Cumulative Assessment of Impact Risk-Implementing Ecosystem-Based Management for Enhanced Sustainability and Biodiversity in the Black Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2024. "Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine," Commissioned Papers 344185, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    7. Hamulczuk Mariusz & Cherevyk Denys & Makarchuk Oksana & Kuts Tetyana & Voliak Lesia, 2023. "Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics, Sciendo, vol. 377(4), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ijag24:344418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inrapfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.