IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/apecpp/v45y2023i2p1097-1133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China

Author

Listed:
  • Qinyu Deng
  • Wei Xie
  • Ke Wang

Abstract

The response of China's rice yield to climate change is crucial for ensuring food security for China and the globe. However, previous studies have focused on the impact of climate change on a specific rice type or rice as a whole. For the first time, this study combines a new set of the early, middle, and late rice production data and daily weather data at the county level to comprehensively estimate the heterogeneous yield response to extreme temperatures in China. Along with the projections of future temperature and precipitation, we also forecast the potential yield losses when exposed to higher future warming trends. The results show that holding current growing regions and calendars fixed, the yield of popular middle and late rice types will drop by 5.7% ± 1.5% and 11% ± 4.5% under the most extreme scenario compared to no climate change scenarios by the end of this century (2070–2090 average). These results imply that recent structural changes in favor of producing these popular types of rice may satisfy the demand for high‐quality rice but may also increase the risks of climate change to the food supply in China. Therefore, more efforts should be concentrated on incorporating this type of heterogeneity in climatic impacts into national and regional plans for the agricultural adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Qinyu Deng & Wei Xie & Ke Wang, 2023. "Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1097-1133, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:45:y:2023:i:2:p:1097-1133
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13244
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/aepp.13244?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    2. Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna & Haixiao Huang, 2016. "Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 191-211.
    3. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    4. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    6. Jin, Yan & Gardebroek, Cornelis & Heerink, Nico, 2021. "Price Responsiveness of Rice Farmers and the Effectiveness of Grain Support Policies in China," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 312063, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    7. Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), October.
    8. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    10. Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Junjie & Chen, Minpeng, 2017. "Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 8-31.
    11. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    12. Xiaoguang Chen & Shuai Chen, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), pages 576-588, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    2. Wang, Teng & Yi, Fujin & Liu, Huilin & Wu, Ximing & Zhong, Funing, 2021. "Can Agricultural Mechanization Have a Mitigation Effect on China's Yield Variability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315098, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Xiaomeng Cui & Wei Xie, 2022. "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 249-272, January.
    5. Cui, Xiaomeng & Tang, Qu, 2024. "Extreme heat and rural household adaptation: Evidence from Northeast China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Liu, Ziheng & Lu, Qinan, 2023. "Ozone stress and crop harvesting failure: Evidence from US food production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    9. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Gu, Haiying & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "The non-linear effect of daily weather on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Cui, X., 2018. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Acreage Response," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277094, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Wang, Di & Zhang, Peng & Chen, Shuai & Zhang, Ning, 2024. "Adaptation to temperature extremes in Chinese agriculture, 1981 to 2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    13. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Seungki Lee & Yongjie Ji & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Agricultural Innovation and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Genetically Engineered Maize," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp616, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    15. Xun Su & Minpeng Chen, 2022. "Econometric Approaches That Consider Farmers’ Adaptation in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    16. François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2024. "Structural identification of weather impacts on crop yields: Disentangling agronomic from adaptation effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 989-1019, May.
    17. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Farmer Adaptation to Extreme Heat," Discussion Papers dp18-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    18. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    19. Liu, Ziheng & Shi, Guanming & Grainger, Corbett & Mitchell, Paul D., 2024. "Environmental Stress, Lactation, and Production: Evidence from Dairy Industry," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    21. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:45:y:2023:i:2:p:1097-1133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2040-5804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.