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The Game of Electoral Fraud and the Ousting of Authoritarian Rule

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  • Beatriz Magaloni

Abstract

How can autocrats be restrained from rigging elections when they hold a huge military advantage over their opponents? This article suggests that even when opposition parties have no military capacity to win a revolt, opposition unity and a consequent threat of massive civil disobedience can compel autocrats to hold clean elections and leave office by triggering splits within the state apparatus and the defection of the armed forces. Opposition unity can be elite‐driven, when parties unite prior to elections to endorse a common presidential candidate, or voter‐driven, when elites stand divided at the polls and voters spontaneously rebel against fraud. Moreover, the article identifies some conditions under which autocrats will tie their hands willingly not to commit fraud by delegating power to an independent electoral commission. The article develops these ideas through a formal game and the discussion of various case studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatriz Magaloni, 2010. "The Game of Electoral Fraud and the Ousting of Authoritarian Rule," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 751-765, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:54:y:2010:i:3:p:751-765
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00458.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wintrobe,Ronald, 2000. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794497, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2016. "Participation in fraudulent elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(4), pages 863-892, April.
    2. Bautista, María Angélica & González, Felipe & Martinez, Luis R. & Muñoz, Pablo & Prem, Mounu, 2020. "Dictatorship, Higher Education, and Social Mobility," SocArXiv 6st9r, Center for Open Science.
    3. Sonin, Konstantin & Egorov, Georgy, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 10178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Tore Wig & Espen Geelmuyden Rød, 2016. "Cues to Coup Plotters," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(5), pages 787-812, August.
    5. Kirill Chmel & Alexander Demin & Kirill Kazantcev, 2017. "Dictators’ Behavior Under Conditions of Economic Sanctions Cumulative Effect," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Escobari, Diego & Hoover, Gary A., 2024. "Late-Arriving Votes and Electoral Fraud: A Natural Experiment and Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Bolivia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Kawanaka, Takeshi, 2015. "The stakes of politics and electoral administration : a comparative study of Southeast Asian democracies," IDE Discussion Papers 536, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. Shadmehr, Mehdi & Bernhardt, Dan, 2011. "Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals, and Punishment Dilemmas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-851, November.

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