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Market Structure and the Local Effects of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis

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  • Yanbing Wang
  • Michael S. Delgado
  • Juan Sesmero
  • Benjamin M. Gramig

Abstract

We investigate how the structures of local corn procurement markets shape the effect of expansion in ethanol production on corn planting decisions in surrounding areas. We first characterize competition intensity as a function of the spatial structure of plant capacities and then econometrically estimate the response in corn acreage to competition intensity at the grid‐cell level. We use the estimated parameters to conduct factual and counterfactual experiments quantifying the effect of different sources of capacity expansion on competition intensity and, ultimately, spatial patterns of land cover. We find that an expansion of ethanol capacity of a given magnitude can have disparate effects on total land conversion to corn depending on its source, that is, whether it is due to plant entry, expansion of an incumbent plant, or the location where the expansion occurs. Expansions that increase competition intensity the most also trigger the most land conversion. This is because, as spatial competition for corn intensifies, plants are forced to procure more from the intensive margin, where additional corn can only be obtained from land conversion. We also find that competitive spillovers trigger land conversion in grid cells that are not within the procurement area of a new plant or of a plant that expands capacity. Our results underscore the importance of considering market structure when quantifying local land use changes associated with ethanol capacity expansion.

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  • Yanbing Wang & Michael S. Delgado & Juan Sesmero & Benjamin M. Gramig, 2020. "Market Structure and the Local Effects of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1598-1622, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:5:p:1598-1622
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12119
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    3. Marten Graubner & Richard J. Sexton, 2023. "More competitive than you think? Pricing and location of processing firms in agricultural markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(3), pages 784-808, May.
    4. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    5. Junpyo Park, 2022. "Distance to Biorefinery Plants and Its Influence on Agricultural Land Value: Evidence from the United States Midwest Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Sampson, Gabriel S. & Al-Sudani, Amer & Bergtold, Jason, 2021. "Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Jinho Jung & Juan Sesmero & Ralph Siebert, 2022. "A structural estimation of spatial differentiation and market power in input procurement," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 613-644, March.
    8. Graubner, Marten & Sexton, Richard J., 2023. "More competitive than you think? Pricing and location of processing firms in agricultural markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 105(3), pages 784-808.
    9. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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